if it is like you said, for 3d modeling and rendering only, modo or LW would be the best cost\features option (both have realtime preview and quite good modeling tools). 3ds max is just to expensive for a hobby, but if you can afford it, my opinion is to go for it. For my taste i did not “understood” Maya for modeling yet. Other apps just have better modeling approach which doesn’t necessarily means maya is bad it just uses a different approach.
Modeling in modo and LW is “straightforward”/linear without the option to change the starting options with which you created/modified an item/poly/edge/vertex after you accept the parameters. 3ds max has the procedural approach which is cool if you get into it (you can stack modifiers and return to each one of them and change the parameters which will update the model). I think maya has something similar like 3ds max.
Also with 3ds max you have more tools for modeling and a bigger community with bunch of scripts/plugins (free or paid) with which you can model anything very quickly. LW unfortunately has deteriorated lately which is sad cause it really is a great tool so there aren’t new updates available (the LW 10 didnt “touch” the modeling tools).
modo is cool but has his weak sides like poor splines, snapping is still confusing (try MoI to see how snapping should be done), torus tool is ahem “broken”, extrusion tools along splines are sometimes weird (i rarely get a shape i want, thank god seneca wrote some scripts for extrusion along edges), you dont have simple drawing shapes tools (like 2d rectangle, circle, arc, basic pen), edge slice tool is cumbersome (you cant cut across more edges), but … modo is still friendly and somehow easy to understand. For 3ds max it took me like 9 months to get used to where the tools are and how to use them.
just a few thoughts … hope it helps, other please jump in