The Future of Lightwave/Newtek

#1

I felt it better to re-post my opinion in a new thread outside of the original since it may be missed due to the previous thread* having some humor in it that may cause viewers to skip the conversation and miss the message. To recap a bit, the original lighthearded thread was asking about Lightwave 8 and Newtek’s current silence. Some lightwavers thought many of us in the community were misguided in our wanting an upgrade. Their opinions centered around their point of “Why have an upgrade at all?” feeling that most users hadn’t approached the limits of the current version (Lightwave 7.5x). An extraordinarily promiment member of the Lightwave community even responsed with, “LW8 will come out when its ready to be released.” Below is the response-- I’m hoping to gather some thoughtful reactions.

Originally posted by Leigh
LightWave 8 will come out when it is ready to be released.

Originally posted by anobrin
Pardon me, but who amongst the "version number junkies "
have taken the “out of the box” lightwave7.5 to its absolute limit??

As a professional marketer with CG as a hobby I have a contrasting and defined opinion on this matter. I’d like you to step back for a moment and consider that you may be missing the prime argument for software upgrades and publicity (another person within this thread referred to Maya’s Oscar win as crap, I believe).

It is apparent that the industry is showing signs of stress with a defined transition to the mature life cycle stage. How do we know? A few reasons. We’re seeing a lot of consolidation (look at the 3D Hardware vendors for a perfect example) and that is one of the first business signs of a mature market. During a time of consolidation you’ll notice less innovation in 3D and less start-up contendors. Finally, you need to look at the revenue landscape.

The major 3D companies have lowered their pricing in order to maintain sales— A mature market is one where product capacity outpaces user demand.

Unfortunately, these price reductions, though providing a swift kick in the revenue patuti, are rarely sustainable. The truth is any significant revenue growth will be at the expense of a competitor. This is what is known as a price war, and in with all price wars, there are winners and losers.

Let’s dove tail this business analysis with your argument of pushing the limits of a given software version being the sole reason for an upgrade release or the lethargic counterpart of “It’ll be released when its ready.” When I began this initially lighthearted thread which elicited many contrasting faces, both pragmatic and emotional, I was curious to see the amount of responses I would get rather than the reasons behind each of them. Needless to say, the thread has been quite active-- much more than I expected but it shows us one of the simpler marketing rules. Marketing works! We hate to admit it to ourselves because no one likes to believe that they bought a product or service because of a pretty face, a compelling message, or a “New & Improved!” Lemon-Fresh Scent. But we do.

Alias|Wavefront is playing their marketing cards expertly. Sure, they are providing greater functionality to the professional artists— that keeps the artists satiated— more importantly they are keeping the publicity engine alive and well. Alias|Wavefront’s marketing machine is screaming, “Hey look at me!” Business consumers look because they want to remain competitive (fear) and they look at the sellers that scream the loudest with awards, articles, praise, and PR. This one-two punch moves market share. It creates gravitas. They’ll be more trade articles about Maya 5, more questions about Maya 5, certainly more bragging about Maya 5. This is what we call “hype” and it works. We say we hate it. But it works.

I started this thread because I’m a staunch fan of Newtek’s Lightwave. Anobrin, I can tell you categorically that you are absolutely right—I have not realized the full power of Lightwave 7.5—not even close. I submit to you, however, that this isn’t the point. I want to learn a piece of proprietary software that will be around tomorrow. Companies that stay in the limelight have accomplished half this battle—they have a better chance of maintaining their market share under the onslaught of price wars and a maturing market, possibly winning some new converts, and certainly remaining in the game— I want Newtek to be a part of that game. And silence never sways consumer opinion in your favor.

#2

Great Post.

#3

why do car companies come out with a new version every year, that does nothing different from the year before (except maybe slight design fixes or body styling). Same reason… Hype.

#4

Originally posted by Mike RB
why do car companies come out with a new version every year, that does nothing different from the year before (except maybe slight design fixes or body styling). Same reason… Hype.

Bingo! :bounce:

#5

This is a truly earthshaking revelation.:rolleyes:

Let me know when Newtek provides the “lemon scented” feature. In the meantime I’ll be using the tools that exist.

:hmm:

#6

well my 2 cents are this

ok so you’ve not mastered 7.5 fine but8 might be easier to master - it might not do alot more but perhaps it makes what woudltake 2 hours in 7.5 only 1 hour in 8 and twice as much fun too

i mean apart from rendering which has improved alot ove rhte years you could probally model anything jsut aswell in lw 1 or 2 jsut aswell as you can in 7.5 but let face it its easier faster and more fun in 7.5 isn’t it

#7

I don’t care if they make 7.5c, 8. 9,000 …whatever

Can they just get the deformation and IK system on par with Maya, XS, max or the top-dog Messiah…
Thats all I want (and a expansive render output options).

If Cinema or Truespace beat them at this game then what?

#8

I think it’s just a dark week for NewTek. I see a lot more advertising for NewTek now-adays then I ever have in the past. I think NewTek had publicity that was horrible before in the past… but I think they have come a long long way. – Just look at the interviews here on CG-Talk… or the post count of the fourm, or the stories that are on 3dfestival.com that have NewTek backing. All the tutorials (that have slowed as of late), 7.5b (that has some issues), the deals with HP computers, Boxx, Video CD’s / DVD’s… They are doing a great job. The only thing is that in the past week the 2 other major competitors released version updates… which is great great great marketing for sure for those companies… but otherwise… I would say that Alias, XSI, and the others… (what is that one called… oh yea… 3ds max)… have been playing catch-up in the hype department for some time now.

#9

Well according to Jim Plant Newtek is going to show “something exciting” to Lightwave- users at Siggraph this year. would be a better place to show off new 3d- software than NAB is anyway…
CU
Elmar

#10

I think you hit the nail on the head with the fact that the top three companies (Avid, Alias and Discreet) must keep up each other to keep and expand their market share. Also they are more in touch and involved with their big studio users.

The question hobbiest and small studio users (of XSI, Maya or Max) have to ask themselves “what gains will I have from this upgrade vs the cost”. If the answer is “very little” then there is no reason to upgrade.

Lightwave on the otherhand has never had a really expensive upgrade, I think the most expensive one was the 5.6 to LW6 (unless you bought 5.6 with the free upgrade offer like myself). Newtek has never (to my knowledge) charged for point releases. When there is a full version upgrade I think the benefits clearly do outway to cost.

Do we need a Lightwave 8. Yes!!!

Will users buy it? Of course!!

However I think this time around a lot of people are going to really look closely at the benefits vs the cost.

I know for a fact that If Lightwave 8 does not have the following, I may not purchase the upgrade.

  1. Network Render Manager
  2. Bone setup features in Layout that equal to Maya’s
  3. Render Pass Managment
  4. A “Real” Dope Sheet
  5. Spread Sheet for Weights, Volumetric Lights, Lens Flares and other settings that are not in the current Spread Sheet (Oh yea, and integrate the Spread Sheet).
  6. MULTIPLE UNDO’s IN LAYOUT
  7. Graph Editor with Undo’s and ghosted curves to show what your curve was like before you changed it. (Like Motion Builders or XSI)

I am sure everyone else could add more to this list. Thus far, I have a 3rd. party plugin or another application that gives me workarounds, but my preference is to have one application that does all of this.

Any way that’s my 5 cents.

#11

I can’t even understand why number 4 isn’t there all ready. KeyTrak plugin is it for now.(in a limited way) however its still a great plug but something like this should be at the heart of lightwave.

I just don’t like the LW plugin logic “there is a plugin for it” so it doesn’t get added to the core in any way is slapped on / poorly integrated. I hope this practice of NewTek is done away with “to some extent” not completely because with some things this is fine.

#12

hmmm lw graph editor can show ghosted curves cant it??? not 100% here but if so i’ll wantat least a half cent back from you =)

edit:
ah yeah footprints leave footprints hehe i want my half cent =)

#13

Ok, these posts are getting a little bit tedious, and actually are quite frustrating.

Why sit and Ponder the future, when there is time right here and right now to do something.

Go use the tools you have, and if you think of something that will make your life easier post a feature request.

You never know, the tool may already even exist in Lightwave- you just haven’t found it yet.

Lightwave 8 will exist when it is nessicary for it to exist.

So Until then just get on with your lives and continue to create great lw artwork!

Think Zen.

#14

Originally posted by dark_lotus
[B]

Lightwave 8 will exist when it is nessicary for it to exist.

So Until then just get on with your lives and continue to create great lw artwork!

Think Zen. [/B]

waaaaaaaah…but i can’t create anything good without a new version! the new version will make me a better artist and person…waaaaahhhhh…i need what my neighbor is getting…i want it now…waaaaaah

Yikes…see where that sort of “me tooism” gets you. YIKES!

when they build i will be there. :thumbsup:

#15

Originally posted by dark_lotus
[B]Ok, these posts are getting a little bit tedious, and actually are quite frustrating.

Why sit and Ponder the future, when there is time right here and right now to do something.[/B]

As stated at the top of my original message, my opinion is based on a business standpoint, not as an artist. In my line of work, we don’t focus on functionality as much as the less glamorous business liquidity and future viability of a business.

No worries. :slight_smile:

#16

Hey all

I wondered what your views were on Newteks marketing strategy for their flagship product be it “VT3” or Lightwave. It has been harder to judge which product is Newteks flagship. I wondered what you think of Newteks decision to stop selling Aura as a standalone product to be rereleased under something they call TVPaint. There were rumors that the big announcement at SIGG2003 the integration of Aura into LW? but thats just speculation. Is Newteks Marketing strategy wise (which I think it is) and will it hurt them in the Future?(I think not)

#17

I will say this much ( and I already said it in the Lightwave 8 thread), right now is the other companies time to shine. When Lightwave 7 dropped no one else was even close to releasing another update to their software. It brought with it some great new tools and fixes to alot of bugs that users were complaining about. No, Newtek have not annouced another big upgrade at NAB…but the silence we have been getting from them is pretty much the same thing the competition has been doing. The only solid hint towards Maya 5 was the post on this forum and on Cgchannel a few hours before A/W made it official. They did not say they were doing it months/weeks/days in advance and it seems Newtek is playing that same kind of game. So if we plan on holding Newtek up to scrutiny and want to use the competition for comparisson then let’s look at the whole picture.

I agree that I want to know that Newtek will be around and I hope they are making the necessary moves to make that a reality. But I have seen alot of good things on their part. They brought down the price of Lightwave, they brought down the price on a student liscense, I have seen alot more advertisting in industry/trade magazines than they had a year ago.

I think this kind of forum can be really productive in terms of letting Newtek know what our concerns are and getting the pulse of the industry. I am sure they are taking all theses things into consideration. Unfortunately patience is a pain in the a@@ and we all want the new toys now (not christmas morning).

~L~

…also, yeah right now VT seems to be the Flagship product. But it should be…they have put alot of time and effort into it and are trying to establish a new user base in a really competitive market. For a long time any product but lightwave was getting the back seat ad wise. So I can deal with some hype about VT because the money is going to the same company that is developing Lightwave. I am sure a large part of the capital for developing VT came or was subsidized in some way shape or form by Lightwave.

#18

Part of marketing as opposed to advertising is that you do some serious research to find out who your market is, who is most likely to buy your product and then target your marketing that direction to maximize your advertising dollars.
On top of that you make sure that if you decide to go after a market like video games or 3d print that you do so only after a careful analysis and marketing plan. Also, you dont abandon the area where you have traditionally been strong.
Its also very important to be extremely vocal about projects lightwave was used in which means keeping in close touch with high profile studios. Nobody really makes that much money off selling to studios, most places give the software away free to them. Potential users are swayed by which studios used which software to produce a movie or tv show. Catering to studios insures that the end user gets the same technology that trickles down from them and Newtek reaps the advertising benefits.
Its great to see contests and stuff but why not open those contests to anyone using any 3d software with the prize being Lightwave and other Newtek products. This way much interest is generated in other camps and brings people to Newteks site who arent current users.
Effort should be put into making Lightwave fit well into other envirionments where other software is more commonplace. If you want Lightwave in the game business then its important to anticipate what form any resistance might take. Remove as many reasons NOT to buy it. Go into game studios and find out exactly WHY they arent using Lightwave and what it would take to get it into their business. Its important to develop good relationships and work them.
If you want to sell to Maya, Max or XSI users then make Lightwave fit seemless with those products. Support the file formats and so on. Newtek should look at things like a bult in beaver project or Lightman etc etc.
The way the marketing is getting their is less and less pie to go around and one thing to take a look at is not forcing people to have to decide between Maya or Lightwave but making it a must have both situation.

#19

Originally posted by SplineGod
…Its also very important to be extremely vocal about projects lightwave was used in which means keeping in close touch with high profile studios. …Potential users are swayed by which studios used which software to produce a movie or tv show.

Absolutely TRUE, after seeing Roughnecks Starship Troopers I was immediately sold on Lightwave. Now I have a complete shop with every tool needed to create quality animation. My entire shop is centered around Lightwave.

#20

Originally posted by SplineGod
Nobody really makes that much money off selling to studios, most places give the software away free to them.

Larry, you made some good points, except this one. For years and years, the target market has always been studios. Until recently with all the price drops, hobbyist were just a bonus. If you’re talking about schools, then yes, I believe companies have “special deals” and product placement because they are training future users of the software, for the studios, who do indeed buy the licences.

Weta bought quite a few copies of Maya (over a 100 I think)…and I think that was even before the price drop.

From a marketing point of view, to target other users that studios, having the LW demo version online for download would be a huge step. Education of a product will help drive up sales. Look at the this forum. There is so much free information, and it leads to sales of new units and upgrades, despite the nasty rumours and bugs currently plagued in the Lightwave community and the software (especially the update).

Marketing can also comes in forms of non-paid advertizing. Look at all the non-paid LW evalalists on this board. I really like the passion of so many users in the community, not to mention the generosity. There are so many pros that visit this board and freely give comments/critiques/advice, it’s really great. All this will also lead to new sales from lurkers and probably many sales from upgrades.

Lightwave has always been marketed as a lower cost solution in comparison to their main competitors, but in recent years, that dollar margin has been trimmed quite quickly. If you add many plugins that give extended functionallity to the mix, THAT SHOULD BE IN THE PACKAGE, like keytrak and the ortho bone package your buddies introduced, the price gap even becomes smaller.

There are so many strengths within Newtek, but marketing sure isn’t one. Their main strengths are the price and upgradeability of the educational licence, reasonable upgrade prices and free upgrades, tireless employess that cater to the users (Proton) and the community that extends the product and gives free information. Unfortunately, that last point also acts as a crutch, and why so many people are comparing LW to the others. Take for example, Keytrak. A dope sheet is pretty much standard for a 3D package, but it’s $100 extra, from someone that works at Luxology and could discontinue it anytime. For something so key, it should be intergrated in house. And having it built and sold by someone “friendly” to LW, the choices are either to let it be or buy it and incorporate it into the mix. If they choose to let it be, that that doesn’t forward the development of Lightwave’s core package, which hurts the users, because now you’re relying on two parties (Newtek and the plugin author), not just Newtek.

Speaking of plugins and Lscript writers, there are a handful that frequent this board. What happens if they just stopped making lscripts. That would be a huge loss to the community and that enhanced useability or lacking tools would then fall on the shoulders of the developers.

I too am waiting for LW8, but I will continue to use 7.5. I’m also waiting for the fix of 7.5b, because from a marketing point, that also is a blackeye, especially for the Mac users, who probably make up a decent portion of LW sales.

Newtek’s flagship product is indeed Video Toaster. It has gotten so many free upgrades in the last year or so and there is absolutely no cloud around who is doing the development. And with the time taking to fix the LW update and the call for new programmers, it’s obvious that the development of Lightwave is changing. It’s obviously not changing fast enough for many customers that visit this board.

This thread was started from a marketing view, and it’s obvious other companies are spending more money on marketing than Newtek. Marketing leads to sales, but another companies marketing does diminuish the power in the LW that we choose to use. It just effects the revenue Newtek generates, which in turn drives the funding for future Lightwave development.