I think Per makes a very good point: people who rely on Shake for a living may be in a tight spot. Apple’s secrecy about any new app is great for building suspense, but it’s not very good for an industry. As far as I know, Shake’s user base grew as the software grew, and likewise, the effects industry benefited from a growing pool of talented users. But now that no one outside of an NDA really knows what to expect, things seem very shakey indeed.
Can you imagine if Apple announced that they were dropping Final Cut Pro and gave no incling of what the replacement app might be? Or how it would work? Or if it would work? The video post industry would drop FCP so fast that Avid wouldn’t be able to make enough software DVDs to keep up. Why? Because they would have lost faith in Apple, and they wouldn’t believe that the next product would be as good. By the way, Apple didn’t make the original version of Final Cut Pro either.
This may seem like sceptisicm, but look at what Apple has really done since it acquired Shake. OK, it’s more stable. There have been some useful nodes added in the last few upgrades. But really Shake’s main growth has been through third party plug-ins aimed at highend users. So why is this? Because Apple isn’t in the business of creating industrial strength software. And they didn’t invent Shake, did they?
Why is that a problem? I’ll give you an example: A few years ago I started a petition to get a PAL film workflow solution for Final Cut Pro. The Pro Apps guys were surprised. They had been claiming that FCP already did this. Two white papers later I finally convinced them they were wrong. Their solution was to send a software developer to meet me in London. I took him around various post facilities here and taught him how feature films were cut in Europe. Before that, they didn’t know. The following version (4.5) added the tools to cut features in a PAL environment. Of course Final Cut Pro can do what it says on the box, but if you ask any editor who’s also used Avid, they’ll tell you this: FCP is a great, innovative app, but it lacks industrial strength features that Avid, Lightworks and the others have always had.
So when I imagine Apple building the next generation compositing App, I’m not convinced they’re going to have the professional compositor in mind. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phenomenon had some mind-blowing new features, but at the same time left out some of the essential elements that compositors need. And that’s just economics. It’s easier to sell something like automatic match-moving than it is floating point values.
My two pence. And sorry for the rant.
W