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Old 06-13-2013, 05:58 PM   #1
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Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predict film industry 'implosion'

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"Veteran directors warned students in US about difficulty of getting projects into cinemas, and suggested studio cautiousness could lead to hiked ticket prices


Speaking at the opening of a new media centre at the University of Southern California, the two Hollywood titans painted a picture of a future in which the failure of half a dozen $250m movies in quick succession caused a seismic shift in studio dynamics, leading to audiences being asked to pay $25 (15) a ticket for films such as Iron Man 3 but just $7 (4.50) for movies such as Spielberg's own Lincoln.



Spielberg told students at USC they were vying to enter the film industry at a time when even established film-makers were struggling to get their projects into cinemas, and revealed that the Oscar-winning Lincoln came "this close" to being premiered on the US pay-TV network HBO. He said that many talented young directors were now considered "too fringey" for a cinematic release. "That's the big danger, and there's eventually going to be an implosion or a big meltdown," Spielberg said. "There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm.""


http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2013...s-film-industry
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Old 06-13-2013, 06:53 PM   #2
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It's kind of ironic... considering that it was Lucas and Spielberg who initiated "blockbuster" summer movie mania back in 70-ties. (Jaws, Star Wars etc.)

Things get out of hand, eh?
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Old 06-13-2013, 10:15 PM   #3
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It is human nature that we keep trying/investing/reinvesting until we break it or it doesn't work anymore. We only know the limits when we do that and change for a sake of change is wasting energy.
 
Old 06-13-2013, 11:25 PM   #4
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It does not take an insider or genious to see that happening.

Each month the price of the movie tickets go up. It is 10.50 where I live per ticket. As it grows to 11-25 USD then it will become a problem because less and less people will go to the movies which is already happening. I don't think it is because of the competition with Youtube, tv, games etc. It simply costs too much for people to go to the movies these days. The answer to less tickets sold is to raise the price to make the same amount of money. Eventually that will not be able to continue.

Movies cost to much to make. I know people have said alot about because there are more FX but I don't seriously think they are spending all that money on FX otherwise you wouldn't have all these top of the line FX companies going out of business. Someone is wasting and pocketing the money somewhere in that good old fashioned Hollywood accounting. Hollywood movie making budgets are almost unexplainable.

Here is what you get in Japan for 30 million.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q0Mp9s2-vU



Here is what 30 million gets us in the US movie market.


In 1997 it took Pixar 30 million to make Toy Story.
In 1999 it took Pixar 90 Million to make Toy Story 2???? 3xs the amount in 2 years worth of inflation?
In 2010 it took Pixar 200 Million to make Toy Story 3??

How did that happen?
Did inflation go up 300% in just 2 years? Did the quality go up that much higher?

But that is just Pixar. So question is why so much when others do it for so little, even when compared to themselves just a few years back? And what are they going to do when it costs 400-600 million to make a movie in 10 more years. Raise ticket prices to 30 bucks.
Good luck with that. Wow.

Last edited by earthboyjacobus : 06-13-2013 at 11:30 PM.
 
Old 06-13-2013, 11:54 PM   #5
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What? I thought that tickets just cost $1 for any movie. Or at least that's what I pay for my rentals. Small financial benefits of having young kids.
 
Old 06-14-2013, 10:42 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by earthboyjacobus

In 1997 it took Pixar 30 million to make Toy Story.
In 1999 it took Pixar 90 Million to make Toy Story 2???? 3xs the amount in 2 years worth of inflation?
In 2010 it took Pixar 200 Million to make Toy Story 3??


toy story was released in 1995 after 5 years of developement.
after seeing you can make alot of money they invest in it and toy story 2 had more money which results in more hero characters and much more details in the movie. sure it cost more, but who should built all the additionell stuff without creating costs?
the same for ts3, besides the inflation which is alot in 15 years, the amount of details is increased alot.

and are you serious comparing the japan mocap cgi movies with pixar ones? they dont cost alot, but they dont do hand animation like pixar, most stuff is mocap. sure, you have to clean it, but its in no way comparable to pixar animations. this is also true for the whole quality, you can clearly see that this differs alot. and this cost alot of money.

the inflation is a big problem when comparing 20 years old movies with actual ones, because the prices in general are doubled. i am paying today double the price as 17 years ago for cinema for example.
the movies also have alot more vfx, because hollywood is thinking that people wants it, which is true, otherwise hollywood had react in he meantime.


lucas wrote something like this nearly ten 10 years ago when he produced every new sw movie for "only" 115 mio dollar.
the problem is thats its hard to generate income with cinemas when you need 600 mio dollar to make profit. the studios needs different ways to distribute their movies. perhaps we seeing the end for cinemas in the next years. i am not sure they stop to making such expensive movies, they earn a hell lot of money with it. video on demand would make it possible to get the whole income to the studios without 50 percent lost for cinemas for example. but we will see what happens. they will invest in such movies as long as they can generate income. this will end in much more sequels, bet on the "safe horse".
 
Old 06-14-2013, 01:42 PM   #7
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Quote:
perhaps we seeing the end for cinemas in the next years. i am not sure they stop to making such expensive movies, they earn a hell lot of money with it. video on demand would make it possible to get the whole income to the studios without 50 percent lost for cinemas for example. but we will see what happens. they will invest in such movies as long as they can generate income. this will end in much more sequels, bet on the "safe horse".


Cinema still generates a ton of money. But people are beginning to ask the question more and more. If i have a net connection and a HDtv and netflix etc, then why can i not buy/watch the latest movies from home. I don't need to state piracy is a huge problem but if you make the process easy, fast, reliable and even cheap, films being distributed on multiple formats could bring in more money.

One company will do it, (with a huge film) both in the theaters and some online service and will make a boat-load.

btw i am really curious to see how Captain Harlock does both in how good it is (story/animation) & commercially.
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Old 06-14-2013, 02:27 PM   #8
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The distribution models are changing right around the time Hollywood is out of story ideas.
 
Old 06-14-2013, 03:56 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by circusboy
The distribution models are changing right around the time Hollywood is out of story ideas.



They aren't out of new ideas. They get new movie scripts all of the time that they reject. They'd rather market a well known property, hence all the remakes. It is a more sound financial investment to make a movie with brand recognition.
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Old 06-14-2013, 11:00 PM   #10
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I find the whole AAA game and AAA film industry to be getting old. I've gotten far far more enjoyment out of the indie game scene and the indie film scene this past year than I have out of the AAA markets. You know watching big budget movies that have stories and characters designed for mass appeal just gets old after decades of watching those. I'm finding it much more enjoyable to now watch a film or play a game that has a fanbase of like 200,000 people, maybe even 2,000 people, such things tend to present much more unique and interesting things now.

I feel like the same thing is going to happen to film that has happened to music, and is now happening to video games. It's all going indie. The music scene is largely like this now, indie musicians collectively command more attention now that mainstream ones. Games are now heading this way too, but I don't think indie games commands more attention yet, I think they will in the next 5 years. But now movies are starting to tip this way as well. I think the reason this transition to indie has gone in the order it has, music, games, movies, is largely due to growing bandwidth. A song is 5 mb, people could reasonably download that a decade ago, so thats what people did. This created the demand for music through the web, and cut out of the middle man, letting indie flourish. Now your average (indie) game is like 50 to 500 mb, people can now handle downloading this on the web without issue and everyone is going to web portals to get games, which has opened the way for indie to stand on the same grounds as AAA and start commanding a significant revenue stream. Movies are the biggest in filesize of all media entertainment. You average HD DVD is like 3GB. This is still kind of a struggle for most people, most people can't just immediately snag a new DVD from the web when the craving strikes. More like you have to think a day in advance you wanna watch a movie so it has time to download. So going to theaters is still really the only 'instant craving' satisfaction way for movies. However this is lessening and the whole mentality behind this I think is giving way, that you don't necessarily have to go to AAA media to satisfy a craving for film. It hasn't quite happened yet, but I think it will in the next few years, that an indie film maker is going to figure a way to get there film out there in a way that makes enough money to start a sustainable career on it. I know some have done this already, but they are considered fringe. I think someone will really set an ideal example of how to do this, giving it validity for alot of people, and others will follow suit, opening the door for a genuinely sustainable indie film industry that isn't considered 'second tier', but is rather it's own thing and highly desirable.

And really I think it's ideal this way. I think Iron Man 3 was cool and all, but when you really break it down. There was a team of people probably paid a million or more dollars just to create the 3D models, rigs and scripts of the iron man suits. All that brilliant brain power put to work creating these super complex CG scenes to be the filling meat of what is really just a watered-down made-for-mass-consumption mcdonalds-esque movie. Not that I didn't enjoy Iron Man 3. But I can't help but think, what would happen if you put some of the top talent behind that iron man in a small team of 4 people, with a $500,000 budget and a year or two to create a film of whatever length. Even if it only came out 20 minutes long, I'd bet you it'd be a hell of a alot more interesting and satsifying than Iron Man 3 was. And how much more satisfying would it be for those artists themselves to craft an entire film experience themselves, rather than spend two years just modelling and rigging iron man suits? Of course I have no idea how long that really took, but my point is I think every artist really desires to have their hand in a larger component of the end experience, rather than just be the guy that made the armor really shiny. I am begining to see the AAA media industry as a cancer to the free-willed creative enterprise of modern artists. Much more interesting things will be done without it.

Last edited by techmage : 06-14-2013 at 11:05 PM.
 
Old 06-14-2013, 11:21 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by techmage
I find the whole AAA game and AAA film industry to be getting old. .....You know watching big budget movies that have stories and characters designed for mass appeal just gets old after decades of watching those.


Which is why the film business no longer has any interest in you (or me, for that matter). They are a business with a rigid demographic that they will never give up on (16-35 year olds). They have no interest in reaching outside that. But what the THR roundtable pointed out, and other Hollywood types have reaffirmed, is that since DVD sales died (they are half of what they were only a few years ago) they have relied increasingly on foreign markets to make a profit. There are lots more - and in some cases less discerning - customers to be had outside the West, and subtle or nuanced character studies don't do well in those markets. So don't expect an end to the big, brainless vfx bonanazas we are used to.

As to your point about giving smaller crews little budgets to make art films, well, that sounds good on paper, but would likely be very different in reality. Besides, you can already see those types of films on vimeo and yt, and the monetization potential is nil for projects like those. It's safe to say no big studio will be interested in doing that. It also takes an extraordinarily gifted filmmaker to make such films, and those people are in very short supply. So short, in fact, that when they are found they are typically bumped right up to bigger studio projects.
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Old 06-15-2013, 12:03 AM   #12
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Quote:
There was a team of people probably paid a million or more dollars just to create the 3D models, rigs and scripts of the iron man suits.


Wouldn't that be nice! I'm afraid that the big bucks always have a hard time getting into the pockets of those who do the work instead of the talkers(producers) and the celebs on camera. Although I would hope that some of the headlining riggers would get paid a bit more than the rest of us.

Hey techmage, you just hit 1000 posts?
 
Old 06-15-2013, 04:13 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phrenzy84
Cinema still generates a ton of money. But people are beginning to ask the question more and more. If i have a net connection and a HDtv and netflix etc, then why can i not buy/watch the latest movies from home.....


Ever bigger TV screens is another part of it. I would guess that years ago, watching a VHS video on a 20" brick TV was no comparison to seeing the same movie on the cinema screen. But now, 42"+ flatscreen TVs are common in many home livingrooms, even in teenagers bedrooms.
I love the cinema, but I have to admit that being able to watch a movie at home on a huge TV and in my favourite chair is getting hard to beat. If I had the option of watching a new movie at home the same day it hit the cinema, I might watch it at home instead of driving to the cinema, trying find a parking spot, lining up for tickets and getting mugged for popcorn and drinks.
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Old 06-15-2013, 07:07 AM   #14
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Quote:
and are you serious comparing the japan mocap cgi movies with pixar ones? they dont cost alot, but they dont do hand animation like pixar, most stuff is mocap. sure, you have to clean it, but its in no way comparable to pixar animations. this is also true for the whole quality, you can clearly see that this differs alot. and this cost alot of money. the inflation is a big problem when comparing 20 years old movies with actual ones, because the prices in general are doubled. i am paying today double the price as 17 years ago for cinema for example. the movies also have alot more vfx, because hollywood is thinking that people wants it, which is true, otherwise hollywood had react in he meantime.


No I'm comparing Pixar to Pixar. I understand it took 5 years of development for Toy Story 1 but that should have brought the cost even higher. I also understand they pretty much remade the entire Toy Story movie all over again since the first cut was not that great.

So more time to create the first one. Time=money.

I understand the detail part you speak about Toy Story 1 to 2 did not have such a massive amount more detail.



vs



That is like buying a house in the same neighborhood and paying triple just because it has a pool, wood floors, and a garden tub. Those extra details don't triple the price of the house.
Not 60 extra million dollars.

I wasn't comparing Captain Harlock movie to Pixar movie.
I'm just saying in Japan, a country, with a higher cost of everything for 30 million you get a fully CG animated film which in itself is one big special effect.

In the US for 30 million you are going to get a movie like Madea with no special fx.

I'm saying Hollywood wastes a ton of money they do not need to waste. Complaining about the rising cost, taking less risks doing remake after remake and because of their over inflated costs of production, which as I mentioned they don't put into the special fx since many houses are going out of business, and passing the cost onto us in ticket sales price.

They are beginning to implode, because in 10 years, they will not be able to make a 500 million dollar movie and make a profit unless it breaks records like Avengers.
 
Old 06-15-2013, 07:35 AM   #15
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it's all about business now and not so much about the art of storytelling


Did lucas and spielberg get into film making because they wanted to make money or tell stories?


Big budget stuff used to grab everyone's attention. Now it's the norm.

The public is starting to become jaded and can see who the posers are and who's the real deal.


People have less reason to see movies than ever before. It gets more extreme each year. I think big budget games and movies will hit a wall. I think they've already started.
 
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