GPU prices...Yikes!

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  02 February 2018
Looking at the graph trends, it is currently where it would expected to have been had there not been that gigantic spike a few weeks back. It will be interesting to see if it now resumes its predicted trajectory or if the fall continues. Personally im hoping the fall continues, The entire thing is bound for disaster in one form or another.
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  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by IceCaveMan: For those hoping Bitcoin crashes and crypto-currencies lose their appeal:
BitCoin has been in free-fall, losing about 50% of it's value from it's Jan 6 peak. Down over 12% just today.

Was a bad, bad week for crypto-fads. Here's to hoping for a massive used GPU sell-off. Would be pretty cool if a bunch of reputable retailers or manufacturers bought them back, retested, refurbed (maybe new fans and bearings) and resold them as such at a nice 25-30% markdown from original MSRP.
 
  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by Blinny: Was a bad, bad week for crypto-fads. Here's to hoping for a massive used GPU sell-off. Would be pretty cool if a bunch of reputable retailers or manufacturers bought them back, retested, refurbed (maybe new fans and bearings) and resold them as such at a nice 25-30% markdown from original MSRP.

I completely understand those who want it to crash and burn. I'd be mad if he was trying to buy a GPU right now.

That said, 10 days ago I decided to experiment with some mining. Here's why it made some sense for me.
-I have 2 Pcs, one with a 1080TI, 970 and 980. The second with a 1080TI, 1080 and 980. I didn't buy the GPUs for mining, I bought them for Octane rendering.  But professionally right now 2/3 of my paid work is done on my Mac (db and interactive design). So I had lot of idle computing power. 

-Unlike many parts of Europe electricity is relatively affordable here. It's not as cheap as in some parts of the U.S., but not bad.

-So far, despite the bitcoin drop, I'm grossing approx. $14 a day. 1/3 of that will be lost to added utility bill...so I'm pulling maybe $8 a day net. Nothing big, but $240 extra per month in passive income will be appreciated. So if someone wants to hate on me...go ahead. The thing I'm not crazy about is the increase in my carbon footprint, as I'm sure most of the electricity here isn't generated by alt energy. 

I am not in the market for more cards. It's too speculative and the margins too thin.

Currently I can just keep the windows open. As things heat up I might shut the operation down. AC costs are bad enough as it is.

Otoy says they will be launching a blockchain style rendering approach modeled after bitcoin and alt coins. If they ever launch it perhaps I'll sell computation to other renderers when I'm not on a project.
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Last edited by IceCaveMan : 02 February 2018 at 07:11 AM.
 
  02 February 2018
Cryptocurrency seems really popular in Japan. There is now a J-Pop band made up of 8 singing dancing chicks that only sings songs about virtual currency, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple:

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20...he-crypto-craze

They sing about stuff like "how to keep your wallet password safe". No seriously - I'm not making this up.

IceCaveMan, since you are a prolific cryptocurrency miner now, maybe you'd like to date one of these ladies?
 
  02 February 2018
I'm not yet buying the hype from or about developers creating renderers or software "modeled off blockchain;" IMO they may have a vested interest in saying so publicly. Nothing I have read about blockchain suggests it is an efficient process on small hardware scales. I could be wrong but I believe to be efficient at handling many requests / processes, it requires massive hardware scaling. So with millions of people and mining companies contributing millions of GPUs, it works. But even then it can be slow for a single transaction.

So, I don't know that you could assume, using the  given of a 3D company / artist  that has 2, 5, 10, or 22 GPUs available, that blockchain-based rendering processes will get the same set of complex rendering tasks done in less time than the existing GPU-accelerated (CUDA, OpenCL, etc) processes. At least based on the few articles I've read. Maybe applying the broader concept to a non-encrypted process would be different but I'll believe it when I see it. It's all just number crunching to the GPUs.

Like everything else about crypto, saying you're going to "leverage blockchain"  — for now — feels like another fad for developers. A great SEO tool IMO.

Also everything I've read about it suggests it is highly energy inefficient, so whether it's expensive or not in a particular country, given the CO2 problems we have, seems like not great timing. Unless the country you're in is entirely free of fossil-burning grid sources. That's not to say I blame 3D artists for taking an investment they already made in GPUs, and trying to make a little extra *cough* coin with it.  

I have no problem with that because they  didn't buy up a bunch of GPUs for that purpose . But on balance the entire cryptocoin / chain-tech thing has fad written all over it IMHO.

Last edited by Blinny : 02 February 2018 at 06:50 PM.
 
  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by skeebertus: Cryptocurrency seems really popular in Japan. There is now a J-Pop band made up of 8 singing dancing chicks that only sings songs about virtual currency, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple:

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20...he-crypto-craze

They sing about stuff like "how to keep your wallet password safe". No seriously - I'm not making this up.

IceCaveMan, since you are a prolific cryptocurrency miner now, maybe you'd like to date one of these ladies?
this bit-mining nerd-lady is more my style:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atvJwwec_2A
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  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by Blinny: But on balance the entire cryptocoin / chain-tech thing has fad written all over it IMHO.


There are investors out there with too much spare cash looking to - together - invest Billions of Dollars into the newest tech trend.

The people pushing Blockchain hard may be on to something genuinely useful - for banking, electronic payments, money transfers, micropayments and such - but it is also a very convenient way for them to get at that money to be invested.

All they have to say is "Blockchain is new, is cool, is strong, is brilliant, is the future of many things to come. Look how huge Bitcoin became..." et cetera et cetera.

Boom, someone invests 20 to 50 Million Dollars in your new Blockchain startup.

That is what all the Blockchain ra-ra-ra is all about.

Will some useful stuff come out of Blockchain? Probably. I'm sure that there are areas where the tech may turn out to be supremely useful.

But just like the Dotcoms in the 1990s, only a handful of really good applications/companies will probably come out of it.

Social media is saturated. Everyone and their mother codes mobile apps these days. Websites are boring. Internet Of Things is going so-so at best. VR is having trouble getting off the ground.

So - just like past goldrushes - a few clever people are jumping on Blockchain tech to see if they can make some money with it.
 
  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by skeebertus: But just like the Dotcoms in the 1990s, only a handful of really good applications/companies will probably come out of it.

Social media is saturated. Everyone and their mother codes mobile apps these days. Websites are boring. Internet Of Things is going so-so at best. VR is having trouble getting off the ground.

So - just like past goldrushes - a few clever people are jumping on Blockchain tech to see if they can make some money with it.
Only a handful of apps/companies came out of the dawn of the internet? Websites are boring?  I'm not sure I agree w/ya here bro.

As for Blockchain...I'm not educated enough about it to say how all it will get used or how profitable that will be. I will say this: I thought it was hype when everyone started talking about "The cloud".  But that's turned out to be a pretty big deal--for better and for worse as customers--as a lot of companies like Adobe and Dropbox have scored big.
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  02 February 2018
The current Nicehash mining calculator shows just how crazy it is in mining. The calculator is live and reflects how things can fluctuate due to "mining difficulty" and other factors. In the past ten minutes I've seen estimation of a $4.00 per day gross return on a 1080TI and I've seen the expected return as low as $2.92. That much bumpiness just in the past fifteen minutes!  

This all is after the huge drops of crypto values and a virtual free-fall during the past 30 hours.

After electricity this translates to a modest  gain for someone in the U.S.  I don't see the point of someone buying a new GPU with the goal of mining right now. Esp. with the wild volatility and unknowns. Unless we see a reversal I don't see how GPU demand will stay so high.

Maybe there is good news coming for gamers and 3d rendering folk.
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Last edited by IceCaveMan : 02 February 2018 at 02:01 AM.
 
  02 February 2018
Its down to 6428. Crazy.
 
  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by skeebertus: There are investors out there with too much spare cash looking to - together - invest Billions of Dollars into the newest tech trend.

The people pushing Blockchain hard may be on to something genuinely useful - for banking, electronic payments, money transfers, micropayments and such - but it is also a very convenient way for them to get at that money to be invested.

All they have to say is "Blockchain is new, is cool, is strong, is brilliant, is the future of many things to come. Look how huge Bitcoin became..." et cetera et cetera.

Boom, someone invests 20 to 50 Million Dollars in your new Blockchain startup.

That is what all the Blockchain ra-ra-ra is all about.

Will some useful stuff come out of Blockchain? Probably. I'm sure that there are areas where the tech may turn out to be supremely useful.

But just like the Dotcoms in the 1990s, only a handful of really good applications/companies will probably come out of it.

Social media is saturated. Everyone and their mother codes mobile apps these days. Websites are boring. Internet Of Things is going so-so at best. VR is having trouble getting off the ground.

So - just like past goldrushes - a few clever people are jumping on Blockchain tech to see if they can make some money with it.

I can relate to most of what you're saying. In essence we live in a society where everything is driven not by substance but by hype, which is then magnified by social media and the vapid group think that typifies same. And so you're either the architect of the "latest market thing" and you'll make a mint... or you're not the architect but ARE very observant and got in at the right time a few years back (and sold before most of the air went out of the bubble).... or you're going to get killed. Deservedly so in the latter case if you're throwing money at Bitcoin, etc instead of fundamentally sound investments. Hell, better off investing big amounts of money in NVIDIA and AMD themselves and letting it ride for 3-5 years.
 
  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by LukeLetellier: Its down to 6428. Crazy.

It's down even further as I type this. The global power people met at Davos 10 days ago. Since then it's been all downhill for Bitcoin, dropping 50%.  Billionaire driven businesses like Facebook have blocked crypto-coin advertising. Banks are refusing to let people use credit cards to purchase BitCoin.

I won't be surprised if my bank even starts blocking me from directly depositing from a BC exchange. The powers-that-be won't let anything diminish their control. They can do a lot to strangle it's use w/out deploying an out-right ban.
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Last edited by IceCaveMan : 02 February 2018 at 08:01 AM.
 
  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by IceCaveMan: That said, 10 days ago I decided to experiment with some mining. Here's why it made some sense for me.
-I have 2 Pcs, one with a 1080TI, 970 and 980. The second with a 1080TI, 1080 and 980. I didn't buy the GPUs for mining, I bought them for Octane rendering.  But professionally right now 2/3 of my paid work is done on my Mac (db and interactive design). So I had lot of idle computing power. 

-Unlike many parts of Europe electricity is relatively affordable here. It's not as cheap as in some parts of the U.S., but not bad.

-So far, despite the bitcoin drop, I'm grossing approx. $14 a day. 1/3 of that will be lost to added utility bill...so I'm pulling maybe $8 a day net. Nothing big, but $240 extra per month in passive income will be appreciated. So if someone wants to hate on me...go ahead. The thing I'm not crazy about is the increase in my carbon footprint, as I'm sure most of the electricity here isn't generated by alt energy. 


just as an FYI to those used to "normal" electric bills

for most electric companies (as mine is) there ARE tiers to electric usage costs... as in your first 1000KWH may be one lower price but anything over that usually jumps up in costs - this is to help normal households access the cheapest rates, but businesses or heavy electric users often very quickly get into the ABOVE 1000KW rates which could be 20% more expensive so just to mention that could end up costing a bit more in electric then many are calculating with... just with my small farm i have had electric bills as high as $1600 per month for example... running multiple 250 Watt GPU 24/7 will show up fast.
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Dann Stubbs - dann@darkskydigital.com
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  02 February 2018
Originally Posted by IceCaveMan: It's down even further as I type this. The global power people met at Davos 10 days ago. Since then it's been all downhill for Bitcoin, dropping 50%.  Billionaire driven businesses like Facebook have blocked crypto-coin advertising. Banks are refusing to let people use credit cards to purchase BitCoin.

I won't be surprised if my bank even starts blocking me from directly depositing from a BC exchange. The powers-that-be won't let anything diminish their control. They can do a lot to strangle it's use w/out deploying an out-right ban.


Dude, the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency is basically based on "bullshit" or "hot air". The currency has a monetary value, but nobody knows precisely WHY it has a monetary value, or WHAT that monetary value is based on.

This is the first time in world history that a processor - CPU, GPU, ASIC - solving strange math problems that don't serve any real world purpose returns a currency unit to the user that can pay for real world stuff, but isn't regulated at all or designed by economists.

Now suppose that the next Crypto bubble in 2019 reaches a crazy global size of 5 to 6 Trillion Dollars or such, tens of millions of people in 190 countries buy into it, and then the whole thing goes "Pop!" one day.

What is the effect of that much virtual currency with "real world buying power" suddenly disappearing into thin air in 24 hours?

Imagine for a moment that 1 Billion people each throw a 5,000 Dollars in cash into a garbage bin on the same day, and that money just "disappears forever", never to be recovered again.

A bubble that size popping might actually knock the world economy around in bad ways. (I'm not an econonomist so I couldn't quantify how bad such a bubble collapse might be)

I think that THAT is the reason governments, banks and so on don't want Cryptocurrency to get TOO BIG - nobody knows what economic effects a massive bubble collapse of such currency might have on the conventional economy.
 
  02 February 2018
Actually, since the end of the gold standard, all currencies are based on "trust" (= hot air). There's no intrinsic value anymore to a dollar, pound or euro.

And comparative values are based on supply and demand, itself based on trust in the currency/issuing state economy etc...

And if billion of people would trade in a given cryptocurrencies, it would be much less speculative (if not at all) and much more trustworthy. It would be a commodity and the volume and spread would make it much more stable than anything else we have.

It's only that speculative because it's still a rare good.

For me the problem is elsewhere : the sheer amount of energy needed for the blockchain to "exist".
 
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