Autodesk Stock Tanks On Guidance, Plans For Restructuring

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  12 December 2017
Quote: The interim CEOs are professional bullshitters, or at least, one of them is. There is a Youtube video where he gives a talk. It was so cringe worthy.


Link?

The absolute best AD users could hope for right now is that AD have laid off nothing but marketing and sales people due to the move away from software distributors and over to direct subscriptions. However the fact that the shareholders have lopped off 20% of the share price in just hours suggests it may be more serious.
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Last edited by imashination : 12 December 2017 at 11:03 PM.
 
  12 December 2017
I have no personal or professional stake in Autodesk's future but would
not a collapse of Autodesk cause
a fair bit of chaos in the industry?
in the short term, I mean
Switching to Houdini is not something easily done overnight is it??
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by SD3D: The interim CEOs are professional bullshitters, or at least, one of them is. There is a Youtube video where he gives a talk.
You're a little behind. The board selected Anagnost to be CEO a while ago. So expect nothing but 100% slimy used car salesman marketing BS and doublespeak. Any video or picture of that guy is pure dead eyed uncanny valley cringefest.
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by imashination: The interim CEOs are professional bullshitters, or at least, one of them is. There is a Youtube video where he gives a talk. It was so cringe worthy.
Link?

The absolute best AD users could hope for right now is that AD have laid off nothing but marketing and sales people due to the move away from software distributors and over to direct subscriptions. However the fact that the shareholders have lopped off 20% of the share price in just hours suggests it may be more serious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XNR5BxNMd0
I deleted the embedded version, the guy gives me the creeps.
1:20 I guess he's had enough of working with at least ~1000 of the employees.

Last edited by SD3D : 12 December 2017 at 10:21 PM.
 
  12 December 2017
Anyone seen the Tron legacy boardroom-scene in Encom Tower? It reminds me of Autodesk.
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by SD3D: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XNR5BxNMd0
I deleted the embedded version, the guy gives me the creeps.
1:20 I guess he's had enough of working with at least ~1000 of the employees.
he looks like he is in pain
 
  12 December 2017
Yeah given AD's treatment of XSI, if they ever did decide to close down maya, I doubt they'd sell it because it probably has technology tied into max too at this point that they won't be able to easily change. It isn't like another company where it's their only product where they can cleanly sell it, and at least it'd live on. So I think AD would just drop it.

If they did drop it, I seriously think the industry would lean towards blender. I think people would ride perpetual maya out for a few years while the community at large builds up blender (or a fork of blender) to function more like maya.

Would most migrate to 3dsmax? Probably not. Trust in AD will be fully eroded
Houdini isn't artist friendly - great app, but not for the masses
Lightwave IMO we'll see what happens, but I'm not sure people will migrate to in droves
Modo, maybe for some. I don't see migration happening in a major way though. Can it develop fast enough to become what people want it to be?
C4d - good app, artist friendly, not very tech-deep or open though, no linux version.

All roads I honestly think are going to lead to blender if something happens to maya, but not before it goes through a major growth period from the maya community

I hate blender's interface and have no vested interest in it other than I like that its open source and can therefore weather any commercial storm

Last edited by sentry66 : 12 December 2017 at 05:12 PM.
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by sentry66: If they did, I seriously think the industry would lean towards blender. I think people would ride perpetual maya out for a few years while the community at large builds up blender to function more like maya.

[...]

all roads I honestly think are going to lead to blender if something happens to maya, but not before it goes through a major growth period
Well how much growth do you need ? In the past two years, you got one mayor feature into trunk per month, and 3rd party addons are released on an almost weekly basis...
It slowed down a bit due to rewrite, but still its one of the most thriving communities out there.
ANd there a lot of people coming from other applications using it part time / full time, or just for some functions wich do work better than in their
other application.....reality is the industry _is_ already leaning towards blender in a healthy slow paced way..

As for becomming more like maya.. I hope not. Maybe get some functionality from it, but from the UI/Workflow perspective I do think its way more structured / user friendly once you do not try to mimik your favorite 3d application, and go with the provided workflow

Last edited by tischbein3 : 12 December 2017 at 08:53 AM.
 
  12 December 2017
The industry standard is where the talent is. It will be a while before the Blender-talent matches that of the users of other software on a significant scale.
However, the number of self-taught 3Ds max/Maya users currently in the industry will be replaced by Blender users in the future. Autodesk and the internet service providers have seen to that. This is why Autodesk is in trouble with regard to the media and entertainment sector. Also, even the college/university-graduates that have had access to a free copy of Maya for the duration of their course will be left 3D-application-less upon graduation.
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by tischbein3: As for becomming more like maya.. I hope not. Maybe get some functionality from it, but from the UI/Workflow perspective I do think its way more structured / user friendly once you do not try to mimik your favorite 3d application, and go with the provided workflow


Blender would have 20 X times more users than it has today if they had changed their UI to be more "conventional" when people started asking for this 10 - 12 years ago.

Rule number 1 EVERY good UI designer knows - you do NOT confuse or trouble newcomers to a software with an idiosyncratically designed non-standard UI. This just is NOT done in UI/UX design.

Blender has a HUGE bounce rate. People hear about a new Blender release. Download it. Play around for 10 - 15 minutes. Get HUGELY disappointed and annoyed that the UI AGAIN has not been changed. Delete Blender again and don't look at it again for the next 2 years.

Blender has lost hundreds of thousands of potential users because of this. It would have been THE big 3D player if the UI/UX design wasn't so amateurish (a problem lots of other open source software has had in the past).

The future is not Blender imo. Its more likely Bforartists:

https://bforartists.de/content/download

Much easier and more logical to work with. Same functionality as Blender. Why would I use standard Blender at all when Bforartists gives me a much better UI to use?
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by skeebertus: The future is not Blender imo. Its more likely Bforartists:

The UI of regular Blender will be changed a bit sometime in 2018. Regular Blender is customisable now though, so you can change the ridiculous right-click-select to the conventional left click.
I too have started using Blender and then stopped in frustration, but is it the software at fault or me? For instance, the view-cubes in Autodesk software make navigation easy for a complete novice, but they are EXTREMELY inefficient to use long term. The point is that perhaps there is a greater efficiency long term within the current Blender, if only new adopters could get over the initial difficulty.
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by tischbein3: Well how much growth do you need ? In the past two years, you got one mayor feature into trunk per month, and 3rd party addons are released on an almost weekly basis...
It slowed down a bit due to rewrite, but still its one of the most thriving communities out there.
ANd there a lot of people coming from other applications using it part time / full time, or just for some functions wich do work better than in their
other application.....reality is the industry _is_ already leaning towards blender in a healthy slow paced way..

As for becomming more like maya.. I hope not. Maybe get some functionality from it, but from the UI/Workflow perspective I do think its way more structured / user friendly once you do not try to mimik your favorite 3d application, and go with the provided workflow

sorry, it needs a new UI

the rest seems pretty decent, but UI is universally unintuitive to every other 3d user
 
  12 December 2017
In the beginning I also had my problems with the UI, but a lot of the problems were based that I tried to make it work like my previous application,
and that I wanted to go full on modeling...wich is a bad idea since you have to learn a lot of the ins and outs of the interface.
Once I concentrated on a simple feature things like physics sim, and "doing it the blender way" things started to click.
From there I could expand in other realms of blender.

Nowadays I would say its one of the best UI out there, I feel much more relaxed after 8 hours in blender than I do in
other applications (besides some weak points it still has) , and I'm not the only one experiencing this.
And yes it took some time to learn it, and yes I closed it also a lot of time in frustration, but in the end it was worth the trouble.
But thats the beauty of it. you are able to learn it at your pace without worring on license costs / getting old.

As for bforartists, don't need it, if you are able to get faster into blender use it, I wish him luck , since maintaining keeping up such big
source changes with the development of blender is a lot of work.
 
  12 December 2017
Originally Posted by tischbein3: In the beginning I also had my problems with the UI, but a lot of the problems were based that I tried to make it work like my previous application,
and that I wanted to go full on modeling...wich is a bad idea since you have to learn a lot of the ins and outs of the interface.
Once I concentrated on a simple feature things like physics sim, and "doing it the blender way" things started to click.
From there I could expand in other realms of blender.

Nowadays I would say its one of the best UI out there, I feel much more relaxed after 8 hours in blender than I do in
other applications (besides some weak points it still has) , and I'm not the only one experiencing this.
And yes it took some time to learn it, and yes I closed it also a lot of time in frustration, but in the end it was worth the trouble.
But thats the beauty of it. you are able to learn it at your pace without worring on license costs / getting old.

As for bforartists, don't need it, if you are able to get faster into blender use it, I wish him luck , since maintaining keeping up such big
source changes with the development of blender is a lot of work.

I started on Blender when I started learning 3D more than 10 years ago. But trying to learn 3D with an interface and way of working that is so alien is really frustrating and counterproductive. When I made the switch to Maya, I evolved more than 10 times faster because I didn't have to fight/learn the interface (as much) and could focus on learning the 3D part instead. With Blender I had the feeling I was more learning the program than what you were supposed to do with it.
I think that the learning curve of Blender is too high (especially for novice 3D artists) for it to take over the VFX market.
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  12 December 2017
Blender has bigger issues than just its UI. I like Blender and it's pretty remarkable how capable it is, but in my experience, it doesn't fit well within existing pipelines. It's not likely that anyone is going to rework an entire pipeline just to accommodate it either. It's a great program in and of itself, but it's a lot farther away from prime time than people seem to think.

As for AD - hopefully the people who got hit with this latest layoff can find work quickly. Seeing the way Adobe and AD have gone in recent years (on top of what's happened to a lot of studios) makes me wonder how sustainable the industry is. This is all just very sad and frustrating.
 
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