Blu-ray replacement?

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Old 07 July 2013   #1
Blu-ray replacement?

So it seems Sony and Panosonic are both going to develop a new optical disc to replace Blu-ray. Does this mean Blu-ray will become like the VHS?

The new disc will have a capcity of 300GB compared to a dual layer Blu-ray of 50GB. The plans are to have the new disc developed by the end of 2015. The positive side would be high definition movies and storage of bigger files made more easily.

You can read the article here, it also contains some other linked information on 4K cameras.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23492609

Last edited by Darkherow : 07 July 2013 at 01:11 PM.
 
Old 07 July 2013   #2
I feel as though it should be something along the lines of a thumbdrive. You know, how most people trade large files in person? Already works. Plummeting prices. Crazy?!?!

I imagine that would destroy what I presume is the lucrative(way overinflated?) thumbdrive market, so they need to create a new relatively disposable thing...

Please, O Lords of commerce, extend the period of history where people need to worry about finger prints and scratches, yet another decade please!!!

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after a quick Google, I'm not eating my words. Apparently the largest widely available thumbdrive is 128 Gigs at about 128 bucks. I have to wonder if that is a hard technology cap (I doubt it) or those numbers are driven more by the reality that VERY FEW people need a thumbstick that big, let alone demand ones with higher capacity at a competitive price. (besides having a BD burner that you rarely use. Remeber when blank burnable cds was a section at stores and in grocery check outs and what not...not so much with blank BDs...)

After seeing the amazing onslaught on laptop prices in the wake of the iPad revolution (if you haven't looked at pc laptop pricing in the last few years, and remember shopping for Laptops before that your jaw will drop), I have full faith that that thumbdrive price is inflated by market demand...how cheap could a 300GB thumbdrive be by 2015 if it was (hopefully the last) THE physical commercial product delivery system?
 
Old 07 July 2013   #3
A new format isn't going to be needed for a very long time---a lot of people don't care about Blu-ray and many movies aren't higher resolution than 1080p anyways.
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Old 07 July 2013   #4
Originally Posted by Stankluv: I feel as though it should be something along the lines of a thumbdrive.

The 'jewel box' factor isn't very good with that however.
If the art is reduced to a postage stamp or less I think it doesn't work for distribution/retail goals. Plus if you are a collector how do you organize hundreds of those on a shelf?
I can see how folks just want one big hard disc for all there data aka:New School collecting. Or old school with discs on a book shelf. But hundreds of little sticks two inches long? I can't see a nice way to organize that...
 
Old 07 July 2013   #5
I predict Redbox will "lease" thumbdrives or something, or you have your own Redstick or something.
 
Old 07 July 2013   #6
Originally Posted by Stankluv: I predict Redbox will "lease" thumbdrives or something, or you have your own Redstick or something.


People are going to wait while a kiosk transfers a 300GB file onto a flash drive?
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Old 07 July 2013   #7
Just don't see it happening for mainstream.

1. Can they go to a higher resolution? Sure there are a few 4K tvs coming around, but nobody has them or wants them since many just adopted a new 1080 tv. I sure there is plenty who don't even have that.

2. So what's the point without higher res? Well more space could mean less compression thus even better quality. Problem is pretty much nobody would notice the difference with a slightly better compressed bluray. Only those pixel snooping.

3. It would require people to buy a new player AND all the studios who have been catching up on a backlog of old movies to transfer to bluray aren't going to go back and redo them. So there just isn't a market for it. I guess they could just only do new releases, but they would still have to release regular blurays.

I could see it being used for storage obviously but them would need to bring down the price of the disks. So I agree with some of the others, the next move probably needs to be to a different format than a disk. Especially with so many continuing to stream and less people renting or buying an actual disk. Bluray will probably have the around the same lifespan as dvd, which was what? about 10-15 years? with obvious overlap.
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Old 07 July 2013   #8
I have no idea who this idea serves. Media companies would love for everything to be "in the cloud" so they can control all your content. Streaming content is like a flood that no amount of bitching and moaning from studios will be able to stop. The DVD purchasing market is a dead industry (look up the sales numbers yourself). They can't possibly expect people to buy another disk player so they can buy the Star Wars series all over again?
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Old 07 July 2013   #9
If this new HD format works with current blu-ray players then there's the obvious advantage of saving on the number of discs and packaging for TV series and film collections. But if it requires a new player then they might as well quit while they are ahead. There is already enough confusion for consumers with dvd, blu-ray and 3D blu-ray discs and players.
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Old 07 July 2013   #10
Originally Posted by Artbot: I have no idea who this idea serves. Media companies would love for everything to be "in the cloud" so they can control all your content. Streaming content is like a flood that no amount of bitching and moaning from studios will be able to stop. The DVD purchasing market is a dead industry (look up the sales numbers yourself). They can't possibly expect people to buy another disk player so they can buy the Star Wars series all over again?


I'm with Artbot on this one.
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Old 07 July 2013   #11
Originally Posted by Stankluv: after a quick Google, I'm not eating my words. Apparently the largest widely available thumbdrive is 128 Gigs at about 128 bucks.

I have full faith that that thumbdrive price is inflated by market demand...how cheap could a 300GB thumbdrive be by 2015 if it was (hopefully the last) THE physical commercial product delivery system?

That price is a bit high. Yes, they do sell for that much but I've seen them as low as $50. And if you've used them enough then you know there is little to no difference between the $50 and the $150 model. Flash drive prices follow very closely to RAM and other semiconductor prices. So I'd say they are pretty stable but they could fall or rise depending on global material demand. A couple years ago, natural disasters caused HD prices to skyrocket or the supply to just dry up. This effected quite a few server orders I was putting together.

As for the next video format, I have no shame in saying I don't even own a BlueRay player yet. Sorry Sony, I'm not going to buy your new crap every few years.
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Old 07 July 2013   #12
Originally Posted by WyattHarris: That price is a bit high. Yes, they do sell for that much but I've seen them as low as $50. And if you've used them enough then you know there is little to no difference between the $50 and the $150 model. Flash drive prices follow very closely to RAM and other semiconductor prices. So I'd say they are pretty stable but they could fall or rise depending on global material demand. A couple years ago, natural disasters caused HD prices to skyrocket or the supply to just dry up. This effected quite a few server orders I was putting together.

As for the next video format, I have no shame in saying I don't even own a BlueRay player yet. Sorry Sony, I'm not going to buy your new crap every few years.



Wyatt, what size TV you got? If its 32" or larger, then BR looks really nice. However, I only get films that demand the highest quality picture such as Lawrence of Arabia or Jurassic Park. Anything else, such as comedies, you might as well get on DVD and save a buck.
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Old 07 July 2013   #13
I like getting Blu-Ray if only for good quality references.
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Old 07 July 2013   #14
A Blu-Ray successor should have no place in this world. Quickly after the HD-wars it became apparent to me that they should have gone for thumb drives or flashcards, and only because getting your content over internet, and store it locally, isn't always an option.

To me it feels like the consumer electronics have gone into overdrive. LCD, HD, 3D and now UHD and High Frame Rates follow each other up so fast only to keep us buying TVs. Its all to obvious now. I am so over the consumer electronics, I guess I am getting old.
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Old 07 July 2013   #15
The hardware companies need to keep pumping out new gimmicks, because they don't have a backup plan. They can't compete with streaming or mp4 players, because the market's already too saturated.

The same thing happened with music - mini-disc and DVD-Audio were forced onto the market as mp3 downloads were taking over. By the time the hardware companies realized their mistake, it was too late. The Walkman had given way to the iPod without even realizing it.

The content companies at least appear to have learned from that, and are trying to roll with the current shift.
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