CGTalk > Main Forums > General Discussion
Login register
Thread Closed share thread « Previous Thread | Next Thread »
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-24-2013, 04:35 AM   #31
teruchan
Skeleton Man
 
teruchan's Avatar
portfolio
Terrence Walker
The Last King
of Scotland
Shanghai, China
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 893
I can definitely say I've had enough. It's been a long time, likely since the arrival of Vue 6 Infinite on the market (maybe around 2006 or 2007), that I have seen anything that excited me enough to want to get into it. Why? I think part of the reason is my purpose for getting into it. I wanted to make my own shows or cartoons. For that purpose I feel it is too demanding. Also I have seen the future.

The future is that programs like iClone or MovieStorm, or some new comer to the market, are going to look as good as Unreal 4, CryEngine 3 or Capcom's upcoming Deep Down demo. There will be an endless stream of content, models, textures, sets, environments, in the sub $10 USD range, and a lot will be free. They will be at variable levels of quality, but there will be plenty of high quality stuff for these engines. There will be no end of motion libraries. Someone who wants to create their show will be able to truly focus on being a director or storyteller, and never have to think about modeling, texturing and the like. It will be like showing up on set or location and only concerning yourself with directing your actors etc. I can see this coming and I feel it is so close. It makes spending hours modeling, texturing or setting up advanced rigs feel like a waste of time to me. (some sculpting can still be fun at times though) I don't recall ever in my life enjoying modeling. I got good at it because I needed models to animate in my shows. I never enjoyed texturing. I got good at it because the characters in my shows wouldn't look good without it. I also got good at it because I used these skills in very high paying jobs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mister3d
How can you say you truly love it? Would you do it if you'd have an unlimited financial backing?


Nope. Wouldn't touch a 3D program if I had a bottomless bank account. There are plenty of artists far better than me out there. Why not pay them to make stuff for me? Now I would spend my time drawing, painting, doing 2D animation, making music, shooting video of the amazing places I go, editing them together with voiceover and music, and many other things I enjoy. I would not, I think, open a 3D program though. (until the tools like I mention come to exist)
__________________
Terrence Walker
Studio ArtFX
Learn How to Make Your Own Animated Projects!
You don't need millions of dollars or major studio backing!!
 
Old 04-24-2013, 05:21 AM   #32
TinGooch
New Member
 
TinGooch's Avatar
portfolio
USA
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 15
Nevermind. My long comment's not worth the even longer resulting argument. I'll let your site speak for itself and let people draw their own conclusions. Personally, I pity the artist who blames the paintbrush or the process.

Last edited by TinGooch : 04-24-2013 at 05:39 AM.
 
Old 04-24-2013, 06:06 AM   #33
mister3d
Expert
 
mister3d's Avatar
portfolio
asdasd adsasd
Kiev, Ukraine
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 6,018
teruchan, I so much agree with you. I feel that this generation (next 5 years) is the last pie slice character modelers can enjoy until we get automated tools for their creation. We are already approaching this limit, when finite game libraries can be created. Based on screen resolution, we can go with what looks good 1080p.
Surely, there will be job, but less and less. Look at marvelous designer - now much more people can make good-looking clothes. Look at Ddo - now much more people can make textures faster than it would take a seasoned professional. Character animators are not used for big game project, mocap is everywhere. Whatever you call it, there will be 10 times less jobs I think. It's all just a beginning, and the market will be eaten by automation just like web did, when today anyone can create a website for nothing.
It will happen gradually, in 10 years I think, but it will never stop. So yes, enjoy our heydays, until the graphics is the king. Soon it won't. Just look at upcoming games, and some of them already look quite realistic and good luck surprising the viewer. Of course, there will be another frostbit generation, another UE5, but diminishing returns will start appearing.
People just don't realize how much are are dependent on delivering graphics. The competition will be severe.
 
Old 04-24-2013, 06:17 AM   #34
Andrewty07
lifelong scholar of art
 
Andrewty07's Avatar
portfolio
Andrew Prewett
Animator
walnut creek, USA
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 564
I think it's more like a glass half full/empty argument, yes technology and development is making it easier to make CG and other related content, a slightly similar development has happened in photography where previously it was expensive and primitive to take pics using film so you had to have money to invest in it and an actual understanding of what you were doing. Now anyone and everyone shoots and many assume they are great photographers, there are still plenty professionals out there even though this shift has happened because core skills and techniques allow them to stand out and remain valuable commodities.

There was a similar discussion to this on another website and one poster mentioned how 3d scanning would wipe out modelers and mocap would do the same for animators. I feel they can be a great aid though there will still need to be cleanup for both and they are limited to the physical world. The largest part of our shifts in technology as costs that keeps me going is independence, more indie productions, crowd funding and artists producing high quality content on terms the dictate.
 
Old 04-24-2013, 06:19 AM   #35
TinGooch
New Member
 
TinGooch's Avatar
portfolio
USA
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 15
Automation? Are you kidding me? If you're happy with your visuals being made IKEA style then that's fine. However, the end product of automation will be homogenization, which will in turn be the death of individuality. I've been doing graphics longer than some people here have even been alive. What you're suggesting won't come to pass & certainly not in 10 years.

Here's what you really want:

 
Old 04-24-2013, 07:39 AM   #36
mister3d
Expert
 
mister3d's Avatar
portfolio
asdasd adsasd
Kiev, Ukraine
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 6,018
Quote:
Originally Posted by TinGooch
Automation? Are you kidding me? If you're happy with your visuals being made IKEA style then that's fine. However, the end product of automation will be homogenization, which will in turn be the death of individuality. I've been doing graphics longer than some people here have even been alive. What you're suggesting won't come to pass & certainly not in 10 years.

It's a double-sided coin. It will be both easier, but more people will be able making it. Have you seen Ddo? Or have you tried sculpting clothes and then making them in marvelous designer? That's a big difference.
 
Old 04-24-2013, 08:17 AM   #37
moogaloonie
Expert
portfolio
Casey R Williams
Lansignum Studios
Morgantown, USA
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 462
What's wrong with the dream of an easy button? Sure its fun to poke at the noobs who don't realize you actually have to work at this, but don't we all get excited when something comes along that actually saves real time?
 
Old 04-24-2013, 08:20 AM   #38
AJ
Totoro
 
AJ's Avatar
CGTalk Forum Leader
portfolio
Alex Jefferies
Director
MDI Digital Ltd
Norwich, United Kingdom
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 4,961
Quote:
Originally Posted by TinGooch
If you're happy with your visuals being made IKEA style then that's fine. However, the end product of automation will be homogenization, which will in turn be the death of individuality.
Quoted for 100% agreement. The people who predict the future will be fully automated always over simplify the situation. If software evolves to allow any user to create whatever they want it will essentially be no different to handing someone a blank piece of paper and a pencil and saying 'draw'. If you're suggesting that the software will take care of the decision making, then everything created with it will be constrained by the same limitations and look the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mister3d
Or have you tried sculpting clothes and then making them in marvelous designer? That's a big difference.
Fabric in the real world has cloth dynamics, it doesn't mean everyone can design clothes
__________________
SKETCHBOOK
MDI
moonjam.com
 
Old 04-24-2013, 09:41 AM   #39
Kanga
KillaRoo
 
Kanga's Avatar
portfolio
Chris Kautz
Freelancer/Character artist.
Netherlands
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 9,566
Send a message via ICQ to Kanga Send a message via MSN to Kanga
Yeah I think the elements are going to become ultimately flexible but the genius of arranging and manipulating them will always stay the same.

Also people are quick to label animation mocap and be done with it. Using mocap is not as easy as you think it is. Last night when I saw the beginning of the Blur Elder Scrolls cinematic I saw first class animation and acting and am pretty sure there was a good deal of motion capture but I saw nothing automatic at all.
__________________
The terminal velocity of individual particles is directly related to pink rabbits on a bank holiday.
Characters, Games, Toys
 
Old 04-24-2013, 09:54 AM   #40
ThE_JacO
MOBerator-X
 
ThE_JacO's Avatar
CGSociety Member
portfolio
Raffaele Fragapane
That Creature Dude
Animal Logic
Sydney, Australia
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 10,952
Most industries move from creating content being a challenge to the smallest granule, to making the process easier, to then shift towards platforms and procedural or librarised content providing for the bulk of the menial work.
What that does is it tends to enable millions more, not take the work away from the few truly talented that already exist.

The web didn't put good designers out of business, not even when we became free of text editing every single tidbit and yet have complex websites like wordpress provides. It gave many more the ability to market their work done on that platform, and the chaff and the grains are still visibly far apart.

Unity and UE didn't suddenly put every programmer out of a job, it just allowed many to focus on things and technologies nobody had the time to do before.

XFrog and terragen didn't put matte painters out of a job, it enabled them to produce work faster for a growing, insatiable market.

Those with skills and vision will still assemble a better movie with three cubes than joblo will do with makepixarnow, and real craftmen will still, always, be required for the million unique things you can't proceduralize efficiently.

I've heard the death of this or that discipline for every department for years, at every technological turn now. I still have to see any of them based on creativity perish, or even diminish, and even the more trivial or menial ones, which turn shots around at ten times the speed, are required to do hundred times the shots of before, effectily making it still an upward curve.

DSLRs and Vimeo popularized and made accessible quality movie making and distribution, a marginal minority only though turned out to be anything more than a wanker, and did anything half decent directing and shooting.

Technology only suppresses menial jobs (when it doesn't outright multiply the request because they are not so damn expensive anymore), it never, not once, historically did anything for the skillful and the resourceful but give them more opportunities and freedom.
__________________
"As an online CG discussion grows longer, the probability of the topic being shifted to subsidies approaches 1"

Free Maya Nodes
 
Old 04-24-2013, 11:54 AM   #41
leigh
blahblah
 
leigh's Avatar
CGSociety Staff
portfolio
Leigh van der Byl
A cog in the wheel
Hertfordshire, United Kingdom
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 29,792
Yeah I really don't understand the belief that automation is going to put everyone out of work. This isn't the industrial revolution. When it comes to creative endeavours, the only thing that will result from automation is more rubbish to drown out the good stuff.
__________________
leighvanderbyl.com
 
Old 04-24-2013, 01:09 PM   #42
TinGooch
New Member
 
TinGooch's Avatar
portfolio
USA
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanga
Yeah I think the elements are going to become ultimately flexible but the genius of arranging and manipulating them will always stay the same.

And that's the thing. People who want an "EASY" button are just looking for a way around doing the homework, so to speak. IMO, all we artists really want is an "EASIER" button, implying ergonomics instead of automation.

I too want tools that are more intuitive and flexible. I just don't necessarily want the app to do the work for me. I still want to be able to execute my own vision with precision control, down to the vertex if necessary.

I want to be able to take my mind off the minutia such as bugs, gimbal lock, fixing screwy normals, and so on so that I can get my mind back to the actual task of making art. Basically, I want all of the power control that we currently have without having to compensate for bad design or even worse QA. Narrow that ergonomic gap between traditional and digital art, but keep the power and control that only comes from digital.

Apps will always progress in a forward direction and allow us to do more in less time. Automation will never happen. Art has a soul and spirit, reflecting that of its creator. We're humans. You can't automate our hopes, dreams, whimsy, and experiences. Making art is not like ordering a Big Mac. You can't just pull your car up to a plastic clown and ask for a masterful landscape with a side of steampunk.
 
Old 04-24-2013, 01:19 PM   #43
teruchan
Skeleton Man
 
teruchan's Avatar
portfolio
Terrence Walker
The Last King
of Scotland
Shanghai, China
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 893
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThE_JacO
XFrog and terragen didn't put matte painters out of a job, it enabled them to produce work faster for a growing, insatiable market.


This is exactly what I am talking about, but that next insatiable market is going to be an entertainment content market, and one of great variety, that is extremely wide but very splintered. Many people can't see it. Look at what TinGooch wrote (or recently un-wrote). It's all about outpixar pixar, or the cutting edge or the bleeding edge. Too many people continue to think of the biggest of the big blockbuster or bust.

One day someone is going to take these "automated" tools, something like the next gen iClone, Moviestorm or whatever. Their visuals will not be anything special, maybe even like IKEA. They are, however, going to make a show where the main character is 70 years old and gay. There will be no action, no explosions, or incredible FX. They will, however, delve into ideas and issues which will allow them to reach an audience that is rarely, if ever, serviced by mainstream Hollywood production. They will find a strongly loyal niche audience that will continue to follow them in all that they do.
__________________
Terrence Walker
Studio ArtFX
Learn How to Make Your Own Animated Projects!
You don't need millions of dollars or major studio backing!!
 
Old 04-24-2013, 01:36 PM   #44
TinGooch
New Member
 
TinGooch's Avatar
portfolio
USA
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by teruchan
Their visuals will not be anything special, maybe even like IKEA. They are, however, going to make a show where the main character is 70 years old and gay. There will be no action, no explosions, or incredible FX. They will, however, delve into ideas and issues which will allow them to reach an audience that is rarely, if ever, serviced by mainstream Hollywood production. They will find a strongly loyal niche audience that will continue to follow them in all that they do.

That's naive. The product won't necessarily and automatically create a new audience. That's not a given. It's your responsibility as an artist to push those boundaries. Don't wait for it to happen. That's not the future. That's NOW. That's already happening. That's what the indie & festival scene is all about, opening avenues outside of the mainstream.

Every year, we get tons of films - long and short - that aren't normally viewed by the average moviegoer. Stuff that goes beyond the summer tent poles or Michael Bay boomfests. If you want to make a movie that delves into issues and characters.... make one. Don't wait for future tools to create a new market for you. Get off your tuchas and do it now.

What it seems to me that you're waiting for is an easier way to hack these things out. If CG is too hard for you, set up your camera & lights and just film a live action script. If CG is what you really want, you have to put in the homework and hard work. Art is not magic, nor should it be imo.

<OPINION> Looking at your site and its claims, I can see why you have a vested interest in IKEA art. That's not the future of CG though, only (perhaps) your business model. </OPINION>

Last edited by TinGooch : 04-24-2013 at 02:08 PM.
 
Old 04-24-2013, 01:49 PM   #45
fablefox
Lord of the posts
portfolio
Azhar Mat Zin
Fable Fox
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 1,162
Wink

I like how web was thrown into the discussion, for various reason.

I was oldskool enough to make web using html, where web interface allow you to upload one file at a time. We are talking about geocities and the likes of free websites. There are not a lot of websites, and WYSIWYG is still basic, and usually have wys and code side by side, since once you html become complex, the wys editor side usually cannot handle it.

Therefore in order to make a website, people need to understand the whole HTML. For example tools were too simple to a point that they can help add a list, but if you want to add more item to the list, you need to understand list in HTML. Editor was more like 'generator' instead of editor.

Until Dreamweaver came, that is. And the rest is history. And now with blogspot, or c-panel one click editor, wordpress and what not.

While people still need websites, these usually to high end companies. For usual companies, the need for webmaster almost non existent.

I notice how latest NVIDIA shows the real time result of facial capture. So I guess technology changes.

Long story short, I agree with teruchan here. Oldskool people need to move with the times, while at the same time the market might be smaller (just like CGI market in US/Canada at the moment).
 
Thread Closed share thread


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
CGSociety
Society of Digital Artists
www.cgsociety.org

Powered by vBulletin
Copyright 2000 - 2006,
Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Minimize Ads
Forum Jump
Miscellaneous

All times are GMT. The time now is 05:09 AM.


Powered by vBulletin
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.