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Old 02-18-2013, 05:28 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrcain
Regardless, yes the same effect will most likely happen here (UK), as the confidence in more high level work happens further East. When and if it does, the wages for staff there will increase, companies will want more profit and it won't be as cost effective. The same is happening for manufacturing in China. The GDP has gone up so much that companies are now looking at other countries, even there own for manufacturing. So with VFX, the work for US based studios will start moving back West, where it is more convinient (language barriers, time difference etc..)

it's also not as simple as if its cheaper then thats where it will go. I worked in Asia for three years, and there are so many issues above cost that do start to outweigh the benefit of saving some cash.

Out of interest, I do frequently see jobs posted for LA, Luma Pictures seem to post on the jobs board here, so I presume there still is some industry there?


It's funny when people bring up China/India in terms of VFX outsourcing. My experience living and working in China (2yrs as of last month) suggests that very little Hollywood feature work actually goes through here. Maintaining quality is difficult, there's political issues, costs are increasing and the expectation for bids is that they'll be cheaper than elsewhere. There's only really two shops in China that handle that level of work and both are connected to companies running out of LA.

I believe subsidies have a much stronger impact on the market than the rise of VFX houses in the east. And the problem with subsidies from an artists point of view is that they change and throw entire facilities into disarray. That's your migratory issue right there.

With regards to Luma I know they've been hiring for their Melbourne facility which brings up the Australian angle again. With Australia it's worth noting the tolling bell for Fuel earlier this year and Dr.D before that (yes different circumstances I know). Either way I think calling out the Australian VFX industry as being one which is prospering is a very contentious statement.

I think over all the state of the industry is relatively simple to summarise:

1. VFX films as a product are very desirable both financially and socially, so the subsidy game will continue to be played internationally in a world where international transitions are easier than they've every been.

2. In addition there are a lot more studios capable of doing the work and also still wanting to get more of this work, which means it's a lopsided market and the studios have the control.

Those things will more-or-less work themselves out:

1. Governments will realise it's a losing game to provide incentives to people who can just up-and-leave when the next cheapest offer comes along

2. Some studios will die, some will merge, others will expand to incorporate other revenue streams. Economic Darwinism will continue it's heartless and methodical dance.

What does this all mean? Well ... until things balance out and stabilise the short-term outlook is probably going to be filled with pain, tears, the occasional awesome set piece and lots of threads about how we should unionise.

Just my thoughts
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Old 02-18-2013, 06:17 AM   #32
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Agreed. Although my time spent out in China I worked on both domestic and International features. There are more than two places in China I know of working on outsourced work, including my own. So yes! there is alot of hollywood work being done out there, perhaps not in the faciity you are at though.
 
Old 02-18-2013, 06:59 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrcain
Agreed. Although my time spent out in China I worked on both domestic and International features. There are more than two places in China I know of working on outsourced work, including my own. So yes! there is alot of hollywood work being done out there, perhaps not in the faciity you are at though.


Well I guess it depends what you mean by outsourced work? Lets say 'shots for blockbuster features' (and everything that entails rather than just roto/mm) and I think the list gets very short very quickly

I'd agree it's probably more than two (that would be just Beijing) but yeah, I think the threat from the east is much less scary than many people imagine for the next 3-5 years. After that, well the trick is getting into the Chinese internal market - lots of new cinemas every year here
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:36 AM   #34
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Absolutely, couldn't agree more. It is definitely much less of a threat than people think, and it is funny when people make a fuss on it. Getting the domestic work from China will be all the rage soon enough. Exciting times!
 
Old 02-18-2013, 03:07 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Dillster
I agree. If all nations were to take that stance and apply it, oil from the middle east would be sold only there, iron ore from Sweden would only be sold to local friendly nations, and Guinness made in Ireland would be kept here for us and the rest of you would have to make do with locally cloned ratpiss.


That analogy is seriously flawed but perhaps you intended it to be silly?
 
Old 02-18-2013, 07:07 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrcain
Absolutely, couldn't agree more. It is definitely much less of a threat than people think, and it is funny when people make a fuss on it. Getting the domestic work from China will be all the rage soon enough. Exciting times!

I disagree.

It's not so much as a threat FROM China and other countries in the area, but FROM the studios looking to cut costs more and more. They've been slowly cutting out the US VFX houses and will continue to do so with Canada and the UK. It's only natural that SLOWLY the VFX houses in China improve and take on more of the VFX work. While the cost of doing so will also rise - it still won't be anything like the costs in the US, Canada and Britain. VFX houses in China and India will end up gaining more and more of the VFX business simply because their quality will improve and they won't cost as much. If the studios don't care about destroying American VFX houses, they certainly won't care about doing the same in Canada and Britain in order to make more and more money.

I'm not saying this WILL happen, but IIMO it's where it's heading.
 
Old 02-18-2013, 07:42 PM   #37
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Red face I'm usually the last to know anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrcain
If you honestly didn't know then my apologise too, although it is strange as the hot topic for a long while has been how the UK are 'taking' the work because of sudsidies.


I'm usually the last to know anything. That's why I have to ask these questions.

Quote:
Out of interest, I do frequently see jobs posted for LA, Luma Pictures seem to post on the jobs board here, so I presume there still is some industry there?


Yes. We still have the Local 839 studios, at least two major video game studios (Blizzard, EA), and a number of VFX shops ranging in size from freelancers to larger entities (R&H, Digital Domain, Sony Imageworks). There's also government/corporate visualization work going on here and there (ex: Jet Propulsion Laboratory). Los Angeles employs artists from all around the world.

However, things could change.
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Old 02-18-2013, 11:53 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThE_JacO
De Faria might not have been the ideal choice for that article. He's actually one of the easier and more understanding of the process big honchos between the various heads of the big six hydra.

It's a bit like doing an article on dictatorships and interviewing the only real enlightened dictator of the last 200 years, and conclude that Stalin, Hitler, Pinochet and everybody wlese were, therefore, not a problem

It's true that WB has been, in my experience, one of the better studios managing a VFX project, and most of what I heard about De Faria, for someone that swims in a shark tank for a living, were definitely above par. This doesn't, however, represent people's experience with some other studios, heads and EPs that will remain unnamed.

Just saying.


This is also my gut-reaction (but from another industry)... Because you do see people who handle "partners" differently.

With the same transaction framework you will have people who use it properly, and those who use it in an exploitative way.

I think I can understand now where guys like mrcain are coming from with how "It's not too bad..." Yes things will kind of level out. But it's people who are like De Faria and who are not like De Faria who will probably decide in specific cases if the leveling out globally is balanced or not.

Deciding whether or not you would want to allow your WB, Fox, Universal, or Sony Columbia to decide what happens in that scenario.. is where one can make a decision about doing your own content. Again... the results of that would be very specific.

De Faria's reaction ("What's the problem?") is also very typical of companies that do things properly most of the time. Learning that around their sphere there is all sorts of insanity going on sounds unreal to them.
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Old 02-19-2013, 07:40 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DSW
I disagree.

It's not so much as a threat FROM China and other countries in the area, but FROM the studios looking to cut costs more and more. They've been slowly cutting out the US VFX houses and will continue to do so with Canada and the UK. It's only natural that SLOWLY the VFX houses in China improve and take on more of the VFX work. While the cost of doing so will also rise - it still won't be anything like the costs in the US, Canada and Britain. VFX houses in China and India will end up gaining more and more of the VFX business simply because their quality will improve and they won't cost as much. If the studios don't care about destroying American VFX houses, they certainly won't care about doing the same in Canada and Britain in order to make more and more money.

I'm not saying this WILL happen, but IIMO it's where it's heading.


I don't think you disagree with either of us as a read of the entire discussion will probably attest

Also costs of good VFX work in China are already getting high enough so that there is little to be gained by shipping non-roto/mm work here.
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Old 02-19-2013, 07:40 AM   #40
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