Where do you think the CG industry is headed?

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  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by leigh: I saw it when it originally came out and thought it was a bit rubbish.

Ha,... the new avatar is a killer!
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  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by Kanga: Ha,... the new avatar is a killer!


Cat Vader.
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  12 December 2012
Cheap printing, mobile devices... a very broad audience. I was surprised with those "no-computer" people having bought pads this summer, and using it constantly. A very private feeling to those toys.
Even easier to use game engines. More and more shift to creative side. Huge, powerful generators in areas of character development, texturing. Terribly realistic games in 5 years: a lot of scanned stuff in games. Scanning and motion capture also goes cheap.
Augmented reality - everywhere. 3d-holograms in 10-15 years. Artificial intelligence starts kicking in in 15-20 years.
Definitely work for us. Some areas will shrink, some new will appear. The quality bar rises and rises.
 
  12 December 2012
I see 3 potentially big things happening in 2013/2014:

1) All major render engines go GPU-Accelerated

2) Euclideon finally releases its Geoverse/Unlimited Detail tech

3) Intel/Nvidia/AMD announce realtime-raytracing hardware (<--- this one is hypothetical...)


All in all, I have the feeling that the coming year will be a good one for 3D/CG work!
 
  12 December 2012
Well if we survive past tomorrow....21 Dec 2012.

I believe that the future of 3D will become more accessible by the non-artist such as children, house wife, teachers and etc. due to 3D printers becoming available to the general public at a reasonable price. Accompanying the printers will be simplified verisons of 3D software that non artists can use easily. Meaning most people can use 3D.

In terms of industry, it will be interesting to see how well china's economy performs in the future. Will there be a shift to that side of the world, although some say it's already happened but personally I sense that china is in a fragile state and some 3D studios are heading towards india and etc. I guess one of the biggest issues hinderinng china is their censorship. However visualisation for achitecture in china is big at the moment.

I would also be curious to see if actors will get their faces scanned and used for CG characters one day. What I mean is have someone who's, an aged actor who can't do the acting anymore but have their scanned head on a CG character, like in their prime again.

One last thing is I believe that 2D and 3D are heading towards having one unified program where there will be only one type of artist.
 
  12 December 2012
We're all getting hats!
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  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by AJ: We're all getting hats!


When you say "all" do you mean just the people in your country or the whole world? Because now I want a hat.
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  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by AJ: We're all getting hats!


No, not just hats... We're all getting beer, too!

Last edited by DePaint : 12 December 2012 at 08:47 AM.
 
  12 December 2012
To the OP
There's a phrase you need to memorize, "Wo si yi ge mae guo ren.", it means "I am an American." in Chinese.
 
  12 December 2012
S1mone may become reality sooner than we think. This Zbrush addon/scene looks like a bold step toward that goal.

http://psychoart123.wix.com/humanzbuilder

So yes everybody is going to be a 3D artist. But not everybody will be able to tell cool stories.
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  12 December 2012
More scanning!....Higher Quality, Faster and cheaper(hopefully)
 
  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by Artbot: When you say "all" do you mean just the people in your country or the whole world? Because now I want a hat.
Hats for everyone*!

*Dependant on local subsidies, availability and demand
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  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by cojam: To the OP
There's a phrase you need to memorize, "Wo si yi ge mae guo ren.", it means "I am an American." in Chinese.


Close, but no cigar. "Wo shi mei guo ren"


Contrary to popular belief, I think the industry is on the way up.

The ability to get the software and a workstation has been readily available for a decade.
It's definitely become a lot more popular to become a visual effects artist, but the option to try and get into the industry has always been there. It doesn't however mean, that anyone with a copy of Maya and a computer can be good at it. It really belittles what we do, when people assume it's easy and the only thing that keeps our job safe is making sure the rest of the world doesn't know this little secret. That's a rubbish notion. It takes a very talented person to create the incredible visual effects gracing our screens and filling our brains with inspiration and entertainment for an hour or two. Those people will value themselves and go onto other things if the only viable option is to work for peanuts.

For the thought that because it's global, then the west will suffer, that's ridiculous. There is actually a massive amount of domestic work in China, and most of the projects I worked on out there, were not outsourced from the west but from local or from Hong Kong studios. Wouldn't it be crazy in the future if you were working on work outsourced from China? Oh wait, that's already happening.

The more the rest of the world gets hooked on top level visuals, then the more opportunity there will be for fellow artists. The salary for Chinese artists is on the up. Obviously not comparable with salaries in the west, but it is rising, not get cheaper.
I think true button pushing tasks or things I could teach someone to do relatively easy, will of course be saturated and for no cost, but again if you want it done properly, then it will be needed to be past to someone experienced, and experience costs.

I'm also not sure about the rest, but my salary has got HIGHER, every year. In most part this is because my skill set keeps developing, but also I learn other things outside of being an artist. Working with people, working with clients, looking back at previous jobs to be able to handle the next one more efficiently.

The only thing I can see getting harder or reaping less rewards, is entry level stuff, or surviving if your not up to scratch.
 
  12 December 2012
Good post MR cain...
One of the trends we are seeing is a move towards insourcing.

http://www.networkworld.com/communi...new-outsourcing

Some CEO are beginning to see that outsurcing IT/ Manufacture etc has also some hidden NASTY side effects.

for those who have money to burn here are some reports on the subject of future trends(it talks about the Asian market) :
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/s...20Opportunities

One thing I see is a move towards Generalist in our industry.
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  12 December 2012
Originally Posted by mrcain: Close, but no cigar. "Wo shi mei guo ren"


Dont light up just yet There is a difference between "i am", and "i am an". But moving on...

But I both agree and disagree you the main points of what you say, and the same is true for Robert's comments too...

For everyone who's salary is higher, there is someone who's lost out (dd florida?) for every company that outsources there is one that will return or stay. And while its great to hear that side of the story, that people are doing well and better than before, it is the flip side of the same coin, I don't know of any industry where that that's not the case. We truly live in a global market.

As we move forward, we as consumers are seeing more and more 'just in time' developments via custom solutions particularly in manufacture, here distance is one's ally, as delivery schedules to market (retail ) are getting tighter and harder to meet, with long lead manufacture, plus the nuances of language, will always play a part, that hinders.

Conside that many if not all items are prototyped that's where a lot of work in cg related field, lays untapped, specially considering its all about ip.

Roberts comment and the commentry of the first link, again tapped on what i mentioned in another thread about subsidies, but here the author calls them 'tax incentives'. They help too.

But to the OP, if your looking for a job, I'd suggest looking at untapped and returning markets, not just vfx/film as most do and think is the be all and end all of cg, because with the introduction of 3d printing, the design and prototype world has never looked so interesting.

And rest assured for now and the foreseeable future we'll all want newly designed products, irrespective of where they are manufactured.

Best of luck.
 
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