WIRED - "The Game Console is Dead"

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Old 10 October 2012   #46
Originally Posted by Meloncov: That's just one game, though, even if it's the uncontested leader of the market. With the rise of MMO's proving profitable on a free-to-play model, I suspect the total number of MMO players has increased (though I can't find any hard stats through a casual search).


Same article mentions the failure of the fresh and relatively new MMO "STAR WARS: The Old Republic"....

So.. you know...
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Old 10 October 2012   #47
Originally Posted by CGIPadawan: Same article mentions the failure of the fresh and relatively new MMO "STAR WARS: The Old Republic"....

So.. you know...


It was a failure in that it only attracted hundreds of thousands of players instead of the millions the developers hoped for (and needed to justify the rather astronomical price of developing the game). But even if it's a disappointment, that's still hundreds of thousands of new people playing an MMO.
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Old 10 October 2012   #48
Originally Posted by Meloncov: It was a failure in that it only attracted hundreds of thousands of players instead of the millions the developers hoped for (and needed to justify the rather astronomical price of developing the game). But even if it's a disappointment, that's still hundreds of thousands of new people playing an MMO.


Well most industries do have growth.. It's just that there's also "low growth" or "loss of interest" or "decline" (which was the exact word used by Forbes).

It's true you need a lot of information to know for sure. And it's possible the draining at WotW and the slow movement of SW:TOR is due to another big MMO....

But blanket statements like "MMO's are doing it now!" are really off in my view (It's like taking a view that CG/VFX must surely be booming and booming because you look at ILM only).

Other publications have a view that growth here is slow or that it's even reducing. What percentage of people not playing WotW are people who are now on Social Networks all the time?

I think what's really happening is the dissolution of a single dominant "tech market" into many small niches. Tablet Niches, Phablet Niches, even "Angry Birds" is kind of a niche. The economies exist now to cater to each of these smaller groups but some of these devices like Consoles and PC's will probably have to change as they see (short-term) that their economies are reducing.

If you have to follow now where all the tech-users and gamers are going to, it's a tough task because now they are everywhere.

It's not the MMO's that are changing the face of gaming or the Tablets... it's the consumer that is changing. Lifestyles are changing and people want to be able to play-on-the-go and quickly shift out to another part of their lives: Social Networking, or Work - on the same devices.

I think that really takes me to the point I'm making. Usually we're not immune to being in a niche or out of it. I don't care about "Angry Birds" or MMO's. But I'm in the hunt for Kingsoft Office and I'm seriously considering a move to an HTC Butterfly which takes away a large chunk of what I relied on PC's for.
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Last edited by CGIPadawan : 10 October 2012 at 03:03 AM.
 
Old 10 October 2012   #49
I would point out that SWTOR isn't a failure at all, in fact it's performing well above what they needed for it to be successful, although it's probably lower than expectations.

As far as F2P goes, many MMO's have seen success over a subscription model, like LOTRO, Team Fortress 2, Guild Wars 2, and there's plenty of new games coming that people are excited for like Planetside 2, Firefall, Hawken.
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Old 10 October 2012   #50
Originally Posted by darthviper107: I would point out that SWTOR isn't a failure at all, in fact it's performing well above what they needed for it to be successful, although it's probably lower than expectations.

As far as F2P goes, many MMO's have seen success over a subscription model, like LOTRO, Team Fortress 2, Guild Wars 2, and there's plenty of new games coming that people are excited for like Planetside 2, Firefall, Hawken.


Well OK.. I won't contest that, then.

In reality, I don't really follow MMO's that much ( I follow Forbes more often than MMO's lol!).

In truth I just really have a lot of negative experiences on MMO's. I find them very boring. So when some sources say a major MMO is dying I find it logical. I mean.. If everybody on the planet were wired like me they'd all fail. lol.

What your posts point to at least is that the competition is becoming more and more fierce and at some point, you can play the same game for many years and you tire of it eventually. I do remember seeing their Kung Fu Panda trailer.... and I was like: "Ok... Pandas. That's the next update....Pandas."
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Old 10 October 2012   #51
Originally Posted by Meloncov: They won't be better. But they will likely be close enough that not many people will be willing to pay to buy a separate game console.


But you do have to pay for the bandwith...
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Old 10 October 2012   #52
Originally Posted by CGIPadawan: Well OK.. I won't contest that, then.

In reality, I don't really follow MMO's that much ( I follow Forbes more often than MMO's lol!).

In truth I just really have a lot of negative experiences on MMO's. I find them very boring. So when some sources say a major MMO is dying I find it logical. I mean.. If everybody on the planet were wired like me they'd all fail. lol.

What your posts point to at least is that the competition is becoming more and more fierce and at some point, you can play the same game for many years and you tire of it eventually. I do remember seeing their Kung Fu Panda trailer.... and I was like: "Ok... Pandas. That's the next update....Pandas."


I agree with that.
I think things need to change, not every MMO can be the same way, people simply don't have the time. That's one of the things that makes Call of Duty nice is that the single-player campaign isn't very long and you know you'll have fun, whereas a lot of MMO's like WoW or SWTOR require a lot of time to put in and have a lot of wasted time grinding, it's hard for people to want to get into that stuff when it takes such commitment.

But F2P is more than just MMO's. There's things like Hawken or Team Fortress 2 that are going to be free, and they're much less of a commitment.
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Old 10 October 2012   #53
Originally Posted by DePaint: We are currently as much as 15 - 20 years away from truly "Photoreal" Games running in Stereo 3D @ 60FPS.

By that I mean games that look as good as overnight Maxwell Render type images do today.

So I really don't understand where you get your "we are close to reaching the point of diminishing returns" argument from.

As far as I'm concerned, we are over a decade, and maybe even 2 - 3 decades, away from that point.

Games 10 - 20 years from now will look far better than today's best games.

And yes, anyone with a decent pair of eyeballs will be able to tell the difference that level of tech makes.

It is when you have 2 Hour "Feature Film" level realism in interactive games that a certain "point of diminishing returns" will be reached.

Not any time before that...

As for today's best 3D games, people will see them and laugh how "primitive" the 3D graphics and physics and FX of today were, compared to what is available in, say, 2025 to 2030.


So yes, the 4th Generation Consoles from MS/Sony/Nintendo will need to deliver a lot of hardware horsepower to stay popular in the market for 5 - 7 years.


its true, rendering methods will change/envolve and the overall look will vastly improve (unbiased GI almost runs in realtime today - at least without interface/game)...

...but you forget that "detail" and "photoreality" has to be created first, and thats where current AAA gamestudios already peaked... hundrets of millions for a game means it has to sell millions of copies, or its considered a fail.... and thats a tough goal to reach....


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Old 10 October 2012   #54
Originally Posted by derOesi: (unbiased GI almost runs in realtime today - at least without interface/game)...

Huh? Where? can you show us were a production scene is running real time with an unbiased renderer?
I'm actually curious.
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Old 10 October 2012   #55
Originally Posted by leif3d: Huh? Where? can you show us were a production scene is running real time with an unbiased renderer?
I'm actually curious.


He said almost realtime. Octane for 3ds max?
http://raytracey.blogspot.com/
 
Old 10 October 2012   #56
Originally Posted by BigPixolin: He said almost realtime. Octane for 3ds max?
http://raytracey.blogspot.com/


Thanks for the link.
Yeah, those renders look great. Renderers like that will definitely improve immersion in games.

Scene complexity and assets still have limits in games though. Storage, memory, etc are currently a bottleneck. They will need to be expanded at a higher rate this generation if something like that is going to work with a heavy scene full of characters, destruction, animation, etc...Not to mention many of those scenes aren't very poly heavy as that takes massive amount of memory.

Who knows...the reality is Sony and Microsoft need to make their new machines very future proof to allow developers to get creative.
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Old 10 October 2012   #57
Originally Posted by leif3d: Who knows...the reality is Sony and Microsoft need to make their new machines very future proof to allow developers to get creative.


This is correct. Graphics quality is changing very fast these days, and getting better and better.

If Sony & Microsoft want their 4th Generation consoles to last more than 3 years in the market, they will have to pack serious RAM, GPU and CPU power into them.

I'm very curious what kind of hardware 4th Gen Consoles will sport... its got to be faster than even the most powerful current gaming PC, if they want their 4th Gen Consoles to last 5 - 6 years in the market.
 
Old 10 October 2012   #58
You guys are completely wrong about this. I guess it's because we're all very much into graphics and quality and such, but the market for video games and console hardware is totally different.

When I talk about diminishing returns, it has to be evaluated against the costs of both the hardware and the content creation. Investing more money would not bring bigger sales or provide a better user experience for the majority of gamers.

Microsoft and Sony do not have to provide small power plants, just what hardware can be fit into the regular sized boxes and run on ~200W. The also can't sell the systems for $500 and cannot afford to lose too much money on them either.
And yet these new systems will live as long as the current ones. The Xbox360 will be 8 years old before its successor is released and it will take at least another year or maybe more to stop selling it - just as the PS2 was going quite strong for a long time after the PS3's release.
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Old 10 October 2012   #59
If Microsoft can get away with its PC-tablet called Surface, why Nintendo can't do a Console-tablet ?
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Old 10 October 2012   #60
Well, they're different markets, and also we haven't seen if the Surface is successful or not
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