The Next Big Innovations in CG ? 2012 - 2015

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  01 January 2012
Originally Posted by leigh: Where's a Like button when you need one?!


You're asking us???
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  01 January 2012
I expect mocap to become mainstream (kinect 2) and realtime tesselation to take off with new consoles (dx11/ogl4). Plus highend 3d printers will hopefullly become cheaper.
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  01 January 2012
Viewport displays that look as good as video games do now.
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  01 January 2012
Originally Posted by NanoGator: Viewport displays that look as good as video games do now.


With the exception of lighting, since it doesn't have any lighting effects as such, Mari's viewport displays shaded surfaces the best out of any 3D package. I've never seen another package capable of displaying specular glossiness and roughness with as much detail as it can.
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  01 January 2012
Camera's that can record depth and reflectance information (so you can take a picture of a pavement and get a bump/normal and specular map out of it) Adjustable depth information is recorded so that post-refocusing can be done in camera.

Tabletop 3d scanners

Realtime motion and facial capture added into all major 3d animation packages via Kinect or several standard webcams.

3d displays and Kinect-type sensors allow 3d sculpting with your hands. Gloves will provide tactile feel of the surface through the fingertips.

Game engines like Cryengine3 will begin to replace traditional renderers for final production renders (first main stream movie to be done within a game engine will be released)

Large 3d application companies will stop releasing their software as installable applications and force everyone to rent them in the cloud.
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  01 January 2012
Originally Posted by jasonio: Camera's that can record depth and reflectance information (so you can take a picture of a pavement and get a bump/normal and specular map out of it) Adjustable depth information is recorded so that post-refocusing can be done in camera.


I think the possibility for something like this exists already in the Lytro camera. Sadly, their site is a joke and has very little real technical information. I couldn't even find what the resolution of the camera output is.

But the idea is sound and it has been toyed with for a couple decades. I totally believe this is where photography is going, though, and in 10 years we may look back on CCD cameras the same way we now look back on film cameras. I have no idea how hackable the image data is, but if it is hackable, expect some pretty cool photo apps in the future.
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  01 January 2012
The next noteworthy innovation on my wishlist is black - truly deep and full black on screens. Coming in 2019.

Then in 2021, highly sensitive input devices will follow, sensitive like paper, allowing to paint with real brushes, declassing CG artwork done previously as the first human steps in digital visualisation.

And the innovation for 2071 will be, bye-bye 010101 computers and hello 0123456789 computers, released first by a company named Potato for the private user for only $9,999 with a fantastic interface showing sheep and wolfs. But it won’t be a success, because humans realised in the meantime that they have to be productive to survive, and sitting in front of a screen the whole day won't feed them.

Ok, back on topic: the next innovation will be in June 2014, a button for SESV, the ultimate tool to simulate Sub-Epidermic Surface Vibrations, used then excessively in films for the next two years.
 
  01 January 2012
-games will look as good as The Samaritan video
-new upcoming consoles. Great AA, great textures. Better shaders, still no realtime GI or raytracing...
-texturing will be better integrated with parametric and advanced shaders, which will look as good as usual textures. Basically it will automate such tasks as:
-creating base materials, such as wood, metal etc (perhaps hi-res textures used as a base). it will be as easy as customizing a car model in a game.
-baking occlusion of different kinds, such as cavity maps, worn edges, dirt on edges and cavities, scratches etc.
-automatically generate similar effects from bump mapping details, such as dirt, realistic variation
-tear-wear effects, based on a comprehensive list of. Scratches, chips, mold, and all will look just wonderful. A simple editor allowing for fine-tuning on the fly.
-then exporting it all into textures with masks etc.

Zbrush will feature a new humanoid generator, developed by the best anatomy artists.

Animation will use touch-sensitive screens to write movement. Imagine animating a ball just with your finger in realtime, with fine-tuning possibility. The same for squash-and-stretch effects, and so on.

A tight integration of renderers with compositing packages. All masks will be rendered automatically, as well as passes, and the software will compare passes and sort out issues with alphas etc. All effects such as DOF, and motion blur will be easy to adjust with sliders.

Basically all improvements will be more accessible and in one place. With growing power renderers will look very simple.

Cgtalk features new 3d-smiles with blinn and phong shaders.

Last edited by mister3d : 01 January 2012 at 03:21 AM.
 
  01 January 2012
It might not be relate to cg innovations per-say. But soon Tvs with 4k pixel output will become mainstream. I find that kinda cool.
 
  01 January 2012
a commericaly available raytracer that can render hair/fur as fast as renderman would make me happy.
 
  01 January 2012
Massive multicore CPUs will bring unprecedented, cheap renderpower to the desktop and mobile systems will be able to perform like current workstations due to a mixture of high cpu power and web connectivity.
The interconnection between stationary and mobile devices will improve to a degree where you basicaly can use one application on several devices at the same time or use one as the interface (or part of it) for the other.
Cheers
Björn

PS xdugef will be released in 2015
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  01 January 2012
Quantum-computer renderfarm that finishes all your renders 524 nanoseconds BEFORE you actually send your job.

..also, cheap office coffee machines that actually make drinkeable coffee
 
  01 January 2012
Some new software, some new buzzwords, some new crazes.

The usual stuff.
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  01 January 2012
Originally Posted by ndeboar: a commericaly available raytracer that can render hair/fur as fast as renderman would make me happy.


dont forget displacement
 
  01 January 2012
Originally Posted by mister3d: Zbrush will feature a new humanoid generator, developed by the best anatomy artists.


What would be very interesting - and useful - would be true 3D anatomic modeling where:

1) You create the skeleton with bones and joints (which also doubles as an animation rig)
2) You draw/sculpt muscles onto that skeleton
3) The software then creates a fat/skin layer to go on top of the muscle anatomy
4) Automatic dynamics simulation - skin stretch, fat jiggle, muscles flex/expand

That would really be a breakthrough 3D character modeling + animation functionality in my book!

Sad that no software seems capable of this yet... (at least none that I know of)

Last edited by DePaint : 01 January 2012 at 06:24 PM.
 
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