Console Market: Its all downhill from here?

[Ikarus]

Even with 3 major players dividing up the user base industry analysts were projecting revenue of $1.2 - 1.4 Trillion in 2004.
$1.2-$1.4 Trillion :surprised . I think that number might be off just a tad. I think you meat $12-$14 billion, cause $1.2 Trillion sure is alot....lol. Not even the top 50 companies in the world generate that much revenue.

[Array]

console games need to stop sucking. there are VERY few new releases that even get my attention these days. i prefer to play older nes and snes titles.

I think there are a bunch of problems with console games today.

1) video games no longer drive culture, culture drives video games. it's not the 80's and early 90's anymore when everyone was eating nintendo cereal.

2) video games have become too much like movies in the way they are financed. these new games have HUGE budgets, so no one is willing to take risks and make an innovative game. kind of like why every movie we see is either a sequel or an adaptation of another story. btw, someone did research, and only 10% of the games on the gameboy advance are classified as "original". this means that every other game is either a sequel or a console port.

3) games are becoming TOO realistic. resident evil seems tedious to me since I have to go out of my way to save my progress, or find a clip of ammo. whatever happened to games like contra where you run around with guns a' blazing?

[richcz3]

That is absurd and you are dead right its not the dollar currency.
embarassed as hell.....:blush:

It's Billions

Some supporting articles in Billions
http://www.gignews.com/2002andbeyond.htm

will post the rest as i go through them.

I am looking for the misquoted one and I believe I know how it snafu'd it.

Yes, and the Yen is equal to what in Dollars
http://www.x-rates.com/calculator.html

richcz3

[GRMac13]

@Array: The articles posted discuss the decrease in sales of consoles, not console games. And in all honesty, it's not surprising at all that the sales of these machines is waning at this point. All three consoles have been on the market for a long time (especially in industry terms) and have enjoyed great success. How long can any of the big three console manufactures expect to see an increase in sales of the same machine? Of course there is always a big boom when a new system is released, and the machine will likely be in the homes of most of it's user base within the first year. Essentially, once the machine is in the hands of it's audience, the manufacturers have exhausted their selling power for that product and the number of sales will level off (and probably begin to decrease). Flashy colors and sleek new designs aren't going to get people to buy a product they already own, and it's not going to get people who wouldn't buy it in the first place to miraculously change thier mind. The only way for these companies to see a dramatic increase in sales is to release a new and improved console. This really isn't as drastic as you guys are making it out to be. I guarantee you'll see a dramatic increase in console sales when the Xbox2, PS3 and GC2 are released.

[richcz3]

GRMac13

Yes, the market has three players which have spread the user base thinner. Sega bowed out of the race and took it in the teeth. None the less the market did not ebb until recently.

Microsoft and nintendo are bleeding money on console production. Microsoft is not expected to see profit on Xbox unit sales until 2004 at best. These companies including Sony sell their units well below unit manufacturing costs. They make their money on licenses from games sales. (The old market ploy of give Razors out cheap, make money selling razors.)

With Sony dominating the market they are already looking to push PS3 (which will be backward compatable to PS2 and PS1)
It could be out as early as 2005.

It is a multi-billion dollar industry, but the cost of development and competition has signifcantly raised the risks for the big players.

To complicate matters the hand held gaming market is getting new players. Even phone maker Nokia is trying a hand at it.
Nintendo was saved last quarter by the sales of the various Game Boy units. This is a market that Sony is just starting to venture into.
http://www.forbes.com/2003/05/14/cx_ah_0514tentech.html

Hmmm I haven't owned a console since 1994, but its an interesting market to follow. :shrug:

richcz3

[PhilOsirus]

Phantom will crash. As for Nintendo, they just have no need to produce more consoles when they have plenty in stock andaren't selling like hot pancakes.

The videogame and consoles industry is in good health, and as with all console generations, at some point the sales become less prominent, only to pick up again with the next generation.

On an unrelated note, it was reported tha the PS3 would also be backward compatible with PS1 and PS2 games.

[Neil]

Originally posted by Array

I think there are a bunch of problems with console games today.

1) video games no longer drive culture, culture drives video games. it's not the 80's and early 90's anymore when everyone was eating nintendo cereal.

2) video games have become too much like movies in the way they are financed. these new games have HUGE budgets, so no one is willing to take risks and make an innovative game. kind of like why every movie we see is either a sequel or an adaptation of another story. btw, someone did research, and only 10% of the games on the gameboy advance are classified as "original". this means that every other game is either a sequel or a console port.

3) games are becoming TOO realistic. resident evil seems tedious to me since I have to go out of my way to save my progress, or find a clip of ammo. whatever happened to games like contra where you run around with guns a' blazing?

1. But i thought video games are the reason for everyone going around and shooting each other, and for kids doing wrestling moves on each other and killing them. :rolleyes:

2. Dreamcast did. Looks at their games. They were some of the craziest and most odd games i've ever played. Did they do very good? No, not really. So that's why others aren't imitating them. As long as you suckas keep buying this shit (*cough Matrix) then they'll keep making it.

3. Then play the ps2 version of Contra. What's your point? You needa start browsing for more games then, and look beyond what's on the shelf at Best Buy and CompUSA. GTA was said to be too unrealistic, Getaway is too realistic... blah blah. That's why they make a variety of games, if you don't like realistic, then you play the unrealistic. I do prefer the slower and realistic games, i want to take my time and enjoy all the work that went into it and my 50 bucks, if i wanted to rush through it and beat it in a day, then i'd rent it.



@Phil: Backwards compatibility is one of the strongest aspects of ps2. Why wouldn't they do that in ps3?

[mrZack]

online pc games are fun like ever-crack, counter-strike, or world of warcraft or world of star wars galaxy or sims online cuz you play with other real pple.

it think im growing older, but now all console games just gets boring after the 3rd day. i remmber having so much fun playing old snes and ps1 games.

:thumbsdow

[richcz3]

It's more a market correction than anything else.

With more companies developing hardware, they are simply dividing up the markets resources. When Nokia announced the N-Gage I realized it was going to be a slippery road for game developers to evaluate which platforns there are and which ones to sink money into. Sony's hand held looks to compete directly with Nintendos coveted Game Boy. Just another dillution of the market.

Throw into the mix stagnation of ideas, the general economy, and your fit for a market slow down. Game players just are more particular about what they'll buy and new hardware platforms don't really help matters. Just like the movie business, developers will make sequels and follow ups to existing franchise titles making their safest bets.

Nintendo recently anounced that they were moving away from lengthy game designs and moving more toward budget titles in the mode of the original Donkey Kong games. That's pretty telling where the industry is doing.


richcz3

[DaveW]

Originally posted by Array

1) video games no longer drive culture, culture drives video games. it's not the 80's and early 90's anymore when everyone was eating nintendo cereal.

Well there's Pokemon :)


2) video games have become too much like movies in the way they are financed. these new games have HUGE budgets, so no one is willing to take risks and make an innovative game. kind of like why every movie we see is either a sequel or an adaptation of another story. btw, someone did research, and only 10% of the games on the gameboy advance are classified as "original". this means that every other game is either a sequel or a console port.

3) games are becoming TOO realistic. resident evil seems tedious to me since I have to go out of my way to save my progress, or find a clip of ammo. whatever happened to games like contra where you run around with guns a' blazing?


I don't think you're looking hard enough. There are some really cool games out there if you give them a shot. Sega Soccer Slam, Pikmin, Super Monkey Ball, Ikaruga, War of the Monsters, Crazy Taxi, Ape Escape, and some upcoming games are looking good too, like Billy Hatcher and the Giant Egg, Viewtiful Joe, XIII, 0 Story could be interesting...there was some GCN game about a tiny robot that looked cool too.

Your 3rd point seems to contradict your 2nd point; you complain about lack of innovation, but what you want is Contra and other classic SNES and NES games. Resident Evil, although not my type of game, was very innovative. And there is obviously a market for it. People have different tastes, and there are games out there that satisfy all of them. Game developers aren't going to stop making realistic games just because Array doesn't like them. Millions of people *do* like them, and as long as they keep buying them developers will keep making them.

And what's wrong with sequels anyway? It would have really sucked if we only got one Zelda, one SSX, one Metroid, ect. As long as the sequels are good they should keep making them.

[mrZack]

http://maddox.xmission.com/c.cgi?u=ikaruga

more hateful maddox opinion :drool:

[TheGreenGiant]

Originally posted by richcz3
GR

Microsoft and nintendo are bleeding money on console production. Microsoft is not expected to see profit on Xbox unit sales until 2004 at best. These companies including Sony sell their units well below unit manufacturing costs. They make their money on licenses from games sales. (The old market ploy of give Razors out cheap, make money selling razors.) richcz3

you said youself that you haven't owned a console since 1994(its somewhere on one of your posts) so I find your arguments a bit hard to swallow/follow. - watching gaming and playing it is very different. There is a lot of killer software out there. I just wanted to say that M$ is probably the only company out there bleeding financially on console sales in the name of market penetration. IMO, the xbox business is unviable; keeping it afloat on M$ windows money (that's another debate altogether).


The only problem with the current console market is that there is a problem with having 3 consoles on the market. Nintendo cutting production isn't so much an indicator of the state of the market but the state of the console software for Nintendo - if you follow what is happening in Japan, the CUBE has had a very successful couple of weeks (even outselling the mighty PS2 for a week on the back of Namco's Tales of Symphony). as the console sales spike is still ongoing, expect to see Nintendo do better.

Back on topic, I don't really see it as all downhill but the next gen of console software will be more cost uneffective (need to do better graphics is the biggest determinant). Gameplay will be king again, as it should be.

I just want to say that all real gamers know that Nokia's Ngage is rubbish. The gba will reign on the back of their sales numbers and the PSP is sounding more and more like it'll be a battery sinkhole (can't wait to see it though)

[richcz3]

Hard to swallow ??? huh??
That isn't speculation or something made up, thats industry practice. There isn't one console on the market that is introduced and sold for profit. Introductory prices of $200-250, consoles costs are made on the licenses on $40-50 Games. Even in volume those prices are well below their value.
You buy three games and you have the price of a new console.

The costs for the consoles are recovered over time. Throw into the mix the aggressive price reductions, and it starts to add up. Sony is king at reducing manufacturing costs over the course of a consoles life time which speeds the recovery of per unit sales.

As for me not buying a console game that doesn't mean I havent bought 3 Gamboy Advance, 3 Nintendo 64, 2 Nintendo Game Cubes, 1 Sony Playstation II over the last two years for my nephews and nieces.
Not to mention the $40-50 dollar games that go with them :surprised

richcz3

[richcz3]

In support of game consoles being sold at a loss.

The system is selling for $199 in America right now, and according to some analysts, the company is losing nearly $150 for every console they sell at that price. Microsoft's currently in private arbitration with graphics chipmaker Nvidia to make them reduce the price Nvidia charges for their Xbox graphics processor. Nvidia claims that, if Microsoft wins the case, they'll end up losing money on every Xbox chip they manufacture as well. Console development is much harder than it looks.

And guess what nVidia won..ouch

http://www.gamepro.com/microsoft/xbox/games/news/25872.shtml


Sony has taken gambles before with chip size. It's 128-bit MIPS-based Emotion Engine processor, first manufactured on a 0.25-micron process, was considered too large to be used profitably in the Playstation 2, given Sony's price for the console. Game console makers traditionally subsidize the high cost of their hardware through sales of game titles, especially in the early stages of manufacturing.

http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20010207S0012


Makers of game consoles typically count on sales of their own software and licensing revenue from third-party software to partly subsidize the cost of making game machines.

http://news.com.com/2100-1040-818798.html


I will update with more links as I come accross them.

richcz3

[TheGreenGiant]

Originally posted by richcz3

As for me not buying a console game that doesn't mean I havent bought 3 Gamboy Advance, 3 Nintendo 64, 2 Nintendo Game Cubes, 1 Sony Playstation II over the last two years for my nephews and nieces.
Not to mention the $40-50 dollar games that go with them :surprised

richcz3

still doesn't make it any easier. If you were a gamer and frequent boards like say "gaming-age", you'd be already savaged to death by the forumites for your views. The thing you mentioned about build cost for consoles is true; however, that's just the way console market operates. The only console that is seriously bleeding funds as I've mentioned is the xbox with each console sold.

Adding to this lack of knowledge is the fact that you mentioned the phantom as a contender proves as much that your facts are not lined up straight. The fact that its a hoax seems to have escaped you. For a console to be announced with no companies backing it (hence non of the all important software as you mentioned, for sales and cost recoup) , no proper website.. etc. Don't you think its odd? If you're basing your info on bits and pieces collated together (as opposed to being a gamer who follows gaming news ; reads mags like edge) then obviously the situation is grim. Its not that bad, Nintendo is doing well in its way. SOny had a huge profit loss a while back on the gaming market and the M$? Don't know. A lot of trumpeting on all parts.

However, the situation isn't grim. Gaming is so intergrated into modern life; it won't go away and will only grow more prevalent. Good software will still sell as will hype

[richcz3]

The thing you mentioned about build cost for consoles is true; however, that's just the way console market operates.

Yes. That's all I have stated and the links support that conclusion.

--

TGG Why the personal attacks. :hmm:

"Adding to this lack of knowledge is the fact that you mentioned the phantom as a contender proves as much that your facts are not lined up straight. The fact that its a hoax seems to have escaped you."

What did I say about the Phantom based on the current market?

"It looks like Infinium Labs the company producing the Phantom Console had better rig for some stormy seas ahead."

That's an honest assesment. Yes, pretty stormy seas ahead woudln't you think? or not?

--

I am posting links that support what I am writing is all. The statements in those articles are not my opinions. They state what the industry has been practicing for many years now.

Post some News links to the contrary.

Actualy I look forward if you can supply some of those industry news links. I would love to read the links about the hoax you write about. That's all you have to do mate.

Thanks and peace buddy.


richcz3

[CGTalk Moderation]

This thread has been automatically closed as it remained inactive for 12 months. If you wish to continue the discussion, please create a new thread in the appropriate forum.