PDA

View Full Version : Analyst specaulates that Sony will win next console war.


Gamoron
05-04-2005, 04:58 PM
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=8422

Whatever. I know too many people who sold their PS2 for an XBox. We'll see. I'm routing for a Nintendo comeback.

Let the Flame War begin!

MCronin
05-04-2005, 05:15 PM
Sony "winning" is pretty much a sure bet. You may know some people who traded in PS2's for Xboxen, but the PS2 pretty reularly outsells Xbox and Gamecube combined by a margine of 3-1 to as much as 5-1.

Ryan-B
05-04-2005, 05:17 PM
The article is about when the next console cycle starts, not just about who wins it.

"We think that many investors have misinterpreted the launch of the Xbox 360 as the beginning of the next generation, and expect rapid sales growth in 2006.

"In contrast, we expect the launch of Sony's PS3 (expected in late 2006) to mark the beginning of the next cycle, and think that rapid sales growth will not materialize until 2007."

richcz3
05-04-2005, 05:35 PM
Industry and Market Analysts......Pahhhleez.
Probably heavily associated in Sony interets. A company plauged with problems and delays concerning PS3 development.

It must be great having a job doing numbers guesswork in hopes swaying the investment markets. If there was real accountability allot more analysts would be serving time for their misguidance. Like the ones who fueled the .dot bomb implosion.

MCronin
05-04-2005, 06:10 PM
Industry and Market Analysts......Pahhhleez.
Probably heavily associated in Sony interets. A company plauged with problems and delays concerning PS3 development.

It must be great having a job doing numbers guesswork in hopes swaying the investment markets. If there was real accountability allot more analysts would be serving time for their misguidance. Like the ones who fueled the .dot bomb implosion.

Have they really been plauged with problems and delays? These cycles typically run 5-6 years. If Sony gets the console out for Christmas 2006 it'll be right on time. They'd even be besting what they claimed early in this generation. I believe it was Ken Kutaragi who was saying in 2000-2001 that he expected this generation to run long and that we probably wouldn't see PS3 until 2007.

I think this article pretty much states the obvious, if anything he was a bit too generous in his assessment of MS.

richcz3
05-04-2005, 06:32 PM
Have they really been plauged with problems and delays? These cycles typically run 5-6 years.
Yes there are problems, Sony is currently trying to get their ship back in shape. I am neither a PS3 or XBox fan but I do follow the development of associated technologies involving both companies. What is it like to develop games for the PS3? would be a good place to start.
These are similar problems that affected PS2 development. The Sony executive that publicly admitted various technology short falls was relieved of his position. Now with the managerial shake up you can bet sparks are flying to get the PS3 out at any expense.

There are definately allot of politics in all the analyst reports which is why I made my statement. Take them with a grain of salt.

rakmaya
05-04-2005, 07:18 PM
I agree with richcz3 about the analyst speculations. These are probaly people who have to write something for their next pay check. I doubpt anything is true about that

Now with the managerial shake up you can bet sparks are flying to get the PS3 out at any expense.

That is the last thing they would do. Sony unlike most knows where to hit exactly and how to hit them. They were correct on PS1 and PS2. I doubt they will make any unthoughtful decision just because xbox will be out. Afterall, Sony isprobably counting on performance and expectaions that arise from the PS3 to use for their other sector of the market.

Sony's submission to the complex PS2 architecture was pretty common and didn't effect that much. Most programmers know about this. In fact they used that excuse to say that PS3 sdks will be more easy to tackle and manage

About Sony "winning" the war, that is very far fetched idea now. If those analyst are such talented in predicting the future, they would have been billionares by know.

g8ff
05-04-2005, 07:42 PM
I think its a tad early to speculate on who or what will win the console war. No one even knows exactly what the other is doing right now, or specifically what each console will offer. Market anaylsts claimed Dreamcast was going to do much better than it actually did, due to the fact taht it came at an in-between stage in next-gen platforms, but the system did not fair to well, which is a shame cause it had some awesome shooters on it. Just my nickel, of course, I don't get paid to give my opinion.

MCronin
05-04-2005, 07:59 PM
I think its a tad early to speculate on who or what will win the console war. No one even knows exactly what the other is doing right now, or specifically what each console will offer.

It's never too early to speculate. The definition of speculation hinges on inconclusive evidence. If you wait for facts to become apparent, you are not speculating.

dravt
05-04-2005, 08:38 PM
Dreamcast came first, however it didnīt started the current generation war.

I think this "new console war" will start as soon as every next gen console hits the streets, no the first or the second.

g8ff
05-04-2005, 08:55 PM
Like I said, the Dreamcast came about before the current genration started. I didn't claim you should never speculate, I just find it somewhat pointless. Just my opinion. Speculation doesn't do much for me. Point taken though.

Beamtracer
05-04-2005, 09:38 PM
At least Nintendo got into the market because they wanted to make games consoles.

Microsoft got into the market, not because they had any particular interest in games, but because they see it as a stepping stone to other things.

Sony is taking a while to develop the PS3, but look what they're doing. Cell technology should blow the pants of everything before it.

PhilOsirus
05-04-2005, 09:44 PM
How is the PS3 being delayed? It was never planned or announced to be released earlier than 2006 and the PS3 will likely support the new DVD standard format. As for Sony "trying to get back in shape", their video game division is probably the only sector at Sony that is very much "in shape", as the console and the PS2 titles are the most sold worldwide. The only thing we can guess based on the info we have is that things will remain as they are. Until the consoles are all released, we will have no way to making claims that the video game market will spin 180 degrees.

AJ
05-04-2005, 09:49 PM
'Man states obvious'

Hazdaz
05-04-2005, 09:54 PM
"Analysts" are the most clueless people ever. They are paid to feed people guesses.... yes, GUESSES!

There is ONE and only ONE sure-fire winner in the next console war:

IBM.

If there stock wasn't so damn expensive, I know I would be stocking up right about now.

richcz3
05-04-2005, 11:42 PM
How is the PS3 being delayed? It was never planned or announced to be released earlier than 2006 and the PS3 will likely support the new DVD standard format.
You are correct. However internal development at Sony is not where it should be for an ideal 2006 release. Given Sony's recent exec shuffle 2006 was considered optimistic. E3 should shed some light on exactly what state the hardware is in. Of Course limited release in December 2006 is still on target with expanded wide release in 2007.
That analyst's play on 2007 being the year that matters is cause for thought.

furre
05-04-2005, 11:51 PM
"Analysts" are the most clueless people ever. They are paid to feed people guesses.... yes, GUESSES!
Please tell me you're not actually so ignorant that you think what industry/market analysts do is no different than what fanboys on internet forums do.

Hazdaz
05-05-2005, 12:01 AM
Please tell me you're not actually so ignorant that you think what industry/market analysts do is no different than what fanboys on internet forums do.

It ISN'T different... that's the damn problem. These people get paid ALOT of money to be supposed "experts" in a specific field, and yet for the most part all they do is regurgitate corporate press releases. There is no "analyzing" in their thinking... just Company A told them this or that, and they just reiterate it to the people who's money they control. It's a horrible system in which the "newsmakers" and news "reporters" are sometimes one in the same person.

Unfortuntaly too many people that don't follow the market take Analyst's advice as gospel.

richcz3
05-05-2005, 12:07 AM
Amazing enough, (some) analysts actually take into account an enormous amount of market, economic, political, and performance variables. They try and conceptualize or calculate how these various market forces will interact with each other and effect their subjects stake in the business world.



How does the cost of gasoline affect the price of your Video card.
Why would strained Chinese/Japanese relations effect the cost of Cell phones?
How does the crop output of Central California effect Lingerie sales?
Unfortunately for all that work and calculation wizardry more often than not analysts miss the mark. Sometimes it's better to look out the window than watch the weather channel to see if its raining outside.

Hazdaz
05-05-2005, 12:14 AM
Amazing enough, (some) analysts actually take into account an enormous amount of market, economic, political, and performance variables. They try and conceptualize or calculate how these various market forces will interact with each other and effect their subjects stake in the business world.





How does the cost of gasoline affect the price of your Video card.
Why would strained Chinese/Japanese relations effect the cost of Cell phones?
How does the crop output of Central California effect Lingerie sales?
Unfortunately for all that work and calculation wizardry more often than not analysts miss the mark. Sometimes it's better to look out the window than watch the weather channel to see if its raining outside.

I realize SOME analysts do that.. and your comment about the weather is spot on (I really gotta remember that one)... even with multimillion dollar computers and mathematical formulas and weather models, predicting the weather is still a guessing game at best.

I just have near zero respect for business analysts - especially after the Internet Bubble (and eventual bust) of the 90's.

MCronin
05-05-2005, 12:40 AM
You are correct. However internal development at Sony is not where it should be for an ideal 2006 release. Given Sony's recent exec shuffle 2006 was considered optimistic. E3 should shed some light on exactly what state the hardware is in. Of Course limited release in December 2006 is still on target with expanded wide release in 2007.
That analyst's play on 2007 being the year that matters is cause for thought.

How would you know anything about where Sony's development is or where it should be? They taped out the chip last year, powered up the first workstation late last year, did a full disclosure on the Cell in Feruary and are now doing public demonstrations of the technology, set to debut the PS3 later this month. We know they already have an operating system, it's the same one they are using for the PSP, Sony announced that earlier this year. The management shuffle at Sony is in regards to some horrible decisions in other arms of the company and the fact that this company which used to be the world electronics leader has now sunk to the ranks of JVC, and Ken Kurturagi was demoted for badmouthing the company and because the company is reorganizing, placing more focus into consumer electronics. They had recently become almost solely focused on games and proprietary content which devasted their electronics business. Knowing these facts, it sure sounds to me like they are in good shape as far as PS3 is concerned, and the company is shaping up as a whole, but I'm no expert. History has shown us that Sony introduces a console 18 months before launch with meager tech demos, so far they are 3 for 3. There is nothing in Sony's history to indicate they are going to strike out this time.

Coliba
05-05-2005, 12:41 AM
I just have near zero respect for business analysts - especially after the Internet Bubble (and eventual bust) of the 90's.

You're blaming the wrong people. Analysts actually predicted -or warned- people about the internet hysteria.

The ones to blame would be the young entrepreneurs who promised everybody who would invest in their internet idea, fast gigantic revenues. Also all the internet design firms that told everybody "you have to be on the internet or your company will be dead in a year".

richcz3
05-05-2005, 01:08 AM
...and Ken Kurturagi was demoted for badmouthing the company and because the company....
Through all that spiel that's all I needed to read.

PhilOsirus
05-05-2005, 01:30 AM
Kutagari made various dumb statements before then he went on to badmouth Sony. The guy has a giant ego, he's the one who said that the PSP button problem was not a design-flaw but rather a part of a piece of art. Sony did the right thing.

MCronin
05-05-2005, 01:40 AM
Through all that spiel that's all I needed to read.

Yes but what he had to say had nothing to do with SCEI. He criticised the company's short sightedness in focusing on proprietary media and entertainment and allowing competitors to pants them in the electronics sector. He was the executive deputy president of the company, when someone at that level badmouths their own company, regardless of whether or not they are right, reprecussions should be expected. Sony's electronics division is in a rough patch, the last thing they need is a President running off at the mouth to the press driving their stocks even lower. Anyway, he's back in charge at SCEI and that bodes well for PS3.

CGTalk Moderation
05-05-2005, 01:40 AM
This thread has been automatically closed as it remained inactive for 12 months. If you wish to continue the discussion, please create a new thread in the appropriate forum.